How a region deals with the initial days of the COVID-19 outbreak determines its handling of the crisis.
Regions which ramped up testing in the first few days were able to flatten the curve early, while those which increased testing only later continued to record steep infection curves.
Lesson from Italy
A recent data blog published by the World Bank compares the case curve in the town of Vo in Italy (3,305 residents) with the case curve in the Diamond Princess cruise ship (3,711 travellers).
Vo tested almost all its residents after registering its first few cases, while the ship tested only those who showed symptoms. In the first round of testing, Vo detected more cases than the ship. In the second round, the number of new cases in Vo dropped.
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In the ship, asymptomatic persons spread the infection to others causing a surge in cases in the second round of testing. Notably, while Vo initially quarantined only those who were infected, the ship quarantined most of its passengers.
Therefore, while lockdowns and quarantines help slow the spread, ramping up testing in the initial days flattens the curve.
How States tested
The chart plots the seven-day rolling average (median) of COVID-19 tests conducted per million population since the 10th case in select States where such data were available.
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Impact on case curve
The chart plots the infection rate per crore^ people for every 10 days since the 10th case. Kerala is the only State which recorded a drop in the infection rate. In most States, the infection rate is increasing in varying degrees.
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^Infection rate per crore = (1 crore x total infected) / total population
Source: World Bank, State health ministries.
