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Last week this time, peace seemed an imminent possibility in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, with Russia signalling it would pull back troops mobilised along the two countries’ shared border. But everything changed, quite dramatically, when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The blurry signs of peace until then abruptly gave way to a full-fledged war — one that will likely impact the entire world and world order.
Before we zoom into the geostrategic ramifications of what many call the biggest assault on a European state since World War II, or look at India’s evolving stance at the UN Security Council, let us see how the war is escalating rapidly, with over 300 civilian deaths reported until now.
In an exclusive ground report for The Hindu, Praveen Martis spoke to Ukrainian expatriates in Poland, on events unfolding in their homeland. They voiced deep anguish, spoke of their conflicted loyalties, and urge to fight. They shared stories of wounded Russian soldiers, being treated in Ukrainian hospitals, confiding that they were on routine field training near the borders prior to the invasion, and taken by surprise when asked to cross the lines.
A man with an Indian flag waits for his friends upon his arrival from the Medyka pedestrian border crossing, in Przemsyl, eastern Poland on February 26, 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. | Photo Credit: AFP
The Russia-Ukraine crisis is broadly being seen through the lens of Mr. Putin’s aggressive military invasion in response to a long-festering insecurity, mostly about NATO’s provocative expansionism. In this editorialThe Hindu took the view that unless western nations give assurances to Mr. Putin that NATO will not seek to relentlessly expand its footprint eastwards, Moscow will have little incentive to return to the negotiating table. “But Russia and Mr. Putin must realise that war is not the means to peace and security,” it said.
On Sunday, the office of Ukraine’s President confirmed that a delegation will meet with Russian officials on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, increasing prospects for de-escalation. The news came after President Putin put Russian nuclear forces on high alert in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers.
India’s stance:
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC), on February 27, voted to convene an emergency special session of the General Assembly to consider a resolution, vetoed by Russia, on the situation in Ukraine. The resolution condemned Russia’s aggression and calling for it to withdraw from Ukraine unconditionally. India abstained as it did on Saturday, on UN Security Council resolution 8979 condemning Russian action in Ukraine. Our Washington Correspondent Sriram Lakshman reports.
The Hindueditorial on the vote noted that India had good reasons to abstain, but might have to revisit its stance if the conflict worsens.
Chinese and Indian representatives voting to abstain from a resolution raise their hands during a U.N. Security Council meeting on the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, on February 25, 2022 at U.N. headquarters. | Photo Credit: AP
India has “every reason” to contribute to resolving the Ukrainian conflict, Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said at a special briefing on Sunday. India believes “dialogue between the warring sides is the only way ahead”, Kallol Bhattacherjee reports.
Our Diplomatic Affairs Editor Suhasini Haidar writes on the tough choices before India at UNSC, UNGA over Ukraine. India has thus far refrained from supporting any resolution criticising Russia, which is a traditional strategic partner, but officials said India’s growing concerns over the “humanitarian crisis” and thousands of Indian students caught in the crossfire in Ukraine could find mention in the new resolution, which could invite a rethink in New Delhi.
In this analysis, foreign policy scholar Happymon Jacob argues that New Delhi has taken a “subtle pro-Moscow position” on the question of Russian attacks against Ukraine. This pro-Russia tilt is not just the position of the Indian government, but is something, somewhat surprisingly, shared by much of the Indian strategic community as well, he writes.
Understanding the conflict
Russian President Vladimir Putin. File. | Photo Credit: AP
While both NATO’s expansionist designs and Putin’s military invasion have drawn different degrees of condemnation, depending on critics’ political persuasion and ideological location, the logic of war can rarely be understood through binaries. Every strategic action comes with a political calculation, and every political move stems from a historic context, as our Foreign Editor Stanly Johny explains in these pieces.
- Why did Vladimir Putin bring up the ‘disintegration’ of the USSR prior to declaring war on Ukraine? How did the USSR disintegration unfold? Why did Ukraine fall out with Russia?
- What Russia’s recognition of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk republics practically means for the crisis, and how President Putin’s move has brought the Minsk process to a dead end
Anticipating a crisis, responding to it
- Kallol Bhattacherjee writes on the Munich Security Conference, where Ukrainian President appealed for help ahead of Russian invasion.
- The U.S. joined its European allies in sanctioning President Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov and members of the Russian national security team. Our correspondent Sriram Lakshman reports.
- China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Thursday that Beijing “understands” Moscow’s “legitimate security concerns”, reports Ananth Krishnan. A day after Russia’s military advent began, President Putin told China’s President Xi Jinping in a phone call that Moscow was willing to hold high-level negotiations with Ukraine.
- Ananth Krishnan unpacks China’s position in this analysis of how the Asian giant is walking a tightrope on the Ukraine crisis.
- Sri Lanka, which has strong ties with Russia, and a known reliance on western markets, chose to remain cautious, calling for “maximum restraint” from “all parties”.
