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The Hindu CSDS-Lokniti Post-Poll Survey 2021

Kerala Assembly Elections | Social demographics shaped the elections

The LDF consolidated support among the social groups which generally vote for it.

May 07, 2021 12:44 am | Updated May 13, 2021 01:30 pm IST

Women wait in a queue to vote in Palakkad. File

Women wait in a queue to vote in Palakkad. File

Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey data indicate that the LDF ’s vote share saw a significant improvement among select social groups. When levels of access to education are taken into account, the LDF performed better than the UDF across all education levels, though the gap was much wider among the non-literate group and those who had access to higher education. The NDA got little support from the non-literate segments though its support among those with access to education was more or less consistent.

image/svg+xmlTable 1:Vote by social demographyVotedUDFVotedLDFVotedNDANon-literate36 (-11)57 (13)4 (<0)Upto primary level39 (-1)46 (2)14 (1)Upto matric level42 (3)44 (-4)13 (1)College and above37 (- 1)46 (10)12 (-7)Up to 25 years37 (7)48 (10)10 (-13)26-35 years33 (-10)52 (11)11(-2)36-45 years40 (-4)44 (4)14 (-1)46-55 years41(4)43 (3)13(-4)56 years and above42 (5)43 (-5)12 (4)Female41 (-2)45 (2)11 (1)Male38 (4)46 (3)14(-5)Poor30 (-4)53 (4)15 (3)Lower36 (-3)46 (6)15 (<0)Middle46 (6)41 (1)10 (-9)Rich47 (2)41 (4)9 (-8)Note: Figures are percentages, the rest of the respondents voted forother parties/candidates | The fgures in parenthesis are the change from2016. Source: Lokniti-CSDS post-poll surveys in Kerala during the 2021and 2016 Assembly elections

When it came to different age groups, support for the LDF was higher compared to the UDF. The difference was the sharpest in the 26-35 category. There seemed to be a sharp decline in support in the less-than-25 age group for the NDA as compared to the previous Assembly election.

Also read: Data | Assembly election 2021: The Left returns in Kerala

There was not much of a gender variation when it came to support for the LDF, while the UDF’s voters had a much higher proportion of women. On the other hand, the NDA performed much better among male voters compared to female voters.

Also read: Keeping Left: On Kerala Assembly election results

The LDF maintained its popularity among the poor — a little over half (53%) voted for the alliance. The NDA lost its traditional support from among the middle and rich classes compared to the last election. While support for the LDF declines as one moves from the poor to the rich, the reverse trend holds good for the UDF.

Also read:Kerala Assembly Elections | How the Left Front bucked a decades-old trend in Kerala

This election witnessed a considerable decline in popularity in the NDA’s core support group: young, educated, men, and those belonging to middle and upper economic classes. The LDF, on the other hand, consolidated its support among the social groups which generally voted for it.

Vibha Attri is Research Associate, Lokniti-CSDS

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