The Hindu CSDS-Lokniti Post-Poll Survey 2021

Assam Assembly Elections | Mahajot fails to net tribal votes

Congress leaders led by Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel during a roadshow in Dibrugarh district, Assam.   | Photo Credit: PTI

With religious polarisation, the voting preferences of various caste and tribal groups in Assam became more similar than different from each other in this Assembly election. This meant that the Mahajot, or the grand alliance, did not have much to bank upon for any particular caste group.

image/svg+xml Voted for Mahajot Voted for NDA Voted for AJP-RD alliance Voted for others Castes and communities Upper castes 21 68 8 3 OBCs 20 64 9 7 Dalits 15 73 4 8 Bodos in Bodo areas 16 55 2 29 Other STs (Tiwa, Karbi, Mising, Rabha, Mech, Hajong etc.) 15 74 3 9 Muslims in Bodo areas 81 11 2 6 Others 35 49 9 7 Communities in Bodo areas Bodos in Bodo areas 18 42 4 35 Muslims in Bodo areas 76 11 2 11 Others in Bodo areas 19 70 1 10 Note: Figures are percentages and may not total 100 due to rounding Tribals abandon Mahajot With religious polarisation, the vote choices of various caste and tribal groups in Assam became more similar. The Mahajot failed to garner the support of the Bodo community, despite tying up with the BPF. The Congress’s performance among other tribal voters such as Tiwas, Rabhas, Mechs, Karbis, Hajongs and Misings elsewhere was also underwhelming. There were signs of religious polarisation in Bodo areas too, as the only community that seems to have voted for the Mahajot in large numbers in these areas is the Muslims

One community among whom the alliance was hoping to make an impression this time but failed was the Bodo community. Despite tying up with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which had shifted allegiance from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) before the elections, the Mahajot managed to secure just 16% of the Bodo votes. Instead, it was the BJP-United People’s Party Liberal alliance and other parties, such as the Autonomous State Demand Committee, that bagged a large share of the Bodo votes. In fact, there seems to have been religious polarisation even in Bodo areas, as the only community that seems to have voted for the Mahajot in large numbers in these areas are Muslims.

Not just among Bodos, the Congress’s performance among other tribal voters, such as Tiwas, Rabhas, Mechs, Karbis, Hajongs and Misings elsewhere, was also particularly underwhelming, with the alliance managing to secure only about one-sixth of their vote and the NDA about three-fourths. The NDA won 14 of the 16 Reserved Scheduled Tribe constituencies with a massive vote share of 53%, 19 points more than that of the Mahajot.

The author is a Research Associate at Lokniti-CSDS, Delhi

Our code of editorial values

This article is closed for comments.
Please Email the Editor

Printable version | Jun 18, 2021 6:10:19 AM |

In This Package
Assam Assembly Elections | Hindu consolidation pays off for BJP
You are reading
Assam Assembly Elections | Mahajot fails to net tribal votes
Assam Assembly Elections | Beyond community vote, urban, middle class voters back NDA
Assam Assembly Elections | Sonowal scores higher than Sarma, despite the latter making steady gains
Huge win: BJP supporters celebrating at the party's State head office in Guwahati on May 2, 2021.
Assam Assembly elections | Welfare measures not a decisive factor
Assam Assembly elections | CAA, NRC evoke mixed sentiments
Kerala Assembly Elections | How the Left Front bucked a decades-old trend in Kerala
Kerala Assembly Elections | Votes for tackling the coronavirus
Kerala Assembly Elections | Social demographics shaped the elections
Kerala Assembly Elections | Not ready for a third force
Kerala Assembly Elections | Sabarimala did not become an electoral issue
Kerala Assembly Elections | A shift in social basis of voting
West Bengal Assembly Elections | The limits to polarisation in Bengal
West Bengal Assembly Elections | Development mattered most, not corruption
West Bengal Assembly Elections | Women rally behind Trinamool
West Bengal Assembly Elections | Subaltern Hindutva on the wane?
West Bengal Assembly Elections | BJP failed to attract Congress, Left supporters
West Bengal Assembly Elections | Longest elections did not help BJP
What post-poll numbers tell us about the elections, and how our politics is evolving | The Hindu In Focus Podcast
Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections | The caste calculus in DMK’s win
Tamil Nadu Assembly elections | A silent yearning for an alternative force?
Tamil Nadu Assembly elections | The impact of social factors
Local factors determine electoral outcomes in States
Local issues crucial to voters across States: survey
Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections | The land of the rising sun
T.N. Assembly polls | BJP: a liability rather than asset
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam. File
TN Assembly polls | Did last-minute sops help the AIADMK?
Tamil Nadu Assembly polls | Leadership play a key role
Tamil Nadu Assembly polls | Methodology of post-poll survey
Next Story