Assembly Election Results 2023: Clear wins in most seats, and close fights in a few | Data

The number of seats with a narrow win/lead margin were not significant enough to alter the results in any of the States

Five State election: BJP workers and supporters outside the party headquarters during counting of votes for the Rajasthan Assembly elections, in Jaipur | Photo Credit: -

A look at the win/lead margins of major parties in the four States – Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh – shows that it was not a close election in any of the States in 2023 Polls. Though the exit polls had predicted a close fight in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, results as of now show otherwise.

The win/lead margin is the difference between the vote shares of the candidates in the first and second positions in each seat. The win/lead margin is expressed in percentage points .

Table 1 shows the win/lead margin for the Congress alliance and the BJP in Rajasthan. The numbers in the table correspond to the number of seats won/led by the parties across various margins. The change in the number of seats from 2018 is also listed.

• As can be observed from the table above, in 28 seats the win/lead margin was less than 2.5% points (BJP and Congress alliance combined). In 16 seats the win/lead margin was more than 20% points. In 58 seats, the win/lead margin was between 10-20% points.

Table 2 shows the win/lead margin of various parties in Telangana. The numbers in the table correspond to the number of seats won/led by the parties across various margins. The change in the number of seats from 2018 is also listed.

• In 71 seats, the win/lead margin was over 10% points. Whereas only in 49 seats the win/lead margin was less than 10% points. In only 10 seats, the win/lead margin was less than 2.5% points. So, there were no surprises in store, with the State heading for a Congress win.

Table 3 shows the win/lead margin for the Congress and the BJP in Chhattisgarh. The numbers in the table correspond to the number of seats won/led by the parties across various margins. The change in the number of seats from 2018 is also listed.

• In 46 seats the win/lead margin was over 10% points, compared to 44 seats where it was below 10% points. In eight seats, the BJP was winning/leading with a thin 2.5% points margin, with the Congress doing so in 12 seats. So, the Chhattisgarh elections were relatively closer compared other States.

Table 4 shows the win/lead margin for the Congress and the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. The numbers in the table correspond to the number of seats won/led by the parties across various margins. The change in the number of seats from 2018 is also listed.

• The table shows that this was not a close election. With over 114 seats won/lead with a margin of over 10% points and only 40 seats with a margin of less than 2.5% points, the State was clearly headed towards a BJP win.