The Hindu CSDS-Lokniti Post-Poll Survey 2021

West Bengal Assembly Elections | The limits to polarisation in Bengal

Union Minister Amit Shah during a public meeting. File   | Photo Credit: PTI

There is no denying that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has massively increased its vote and seat share in West Bengal compared to the 2016 Assembly election, and this has largely been on the back of a strong Hindu consolidation behind it (50%), as per the Lokniti-CSDS’s post-poll survey. But the party failed to retain the level of Hindu support (57%, or nearly three-fifths) it had secured in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, thus ending up faring way below its own expectations and its performance in the last general election.

image/svg+xmlNote: Figures are percentages, the rest of the voters voted for other parties and candidates1.Compared to 2019, Hindus moved away from the BJP and Muslims’ consolidation behind Trinamool strengthened furtherVoted for TrinamoolVoted for BJP201620192021201620192021Hindu433239125750Muslim517075647
 

The Trinamool Congress was a direct beneficiary of this erosion of votes, with the party registering an increase in Hindu support from 32% in 2019 to 39% this time. This seven-percentage-point shift from the BJP to the Trinamool happened despite the former running a high-pitched Hindutva campaign that was aimed at exciting Hindus through Jai Shri Ram slogans, talk of illegal migration, allegations of ‘Muslim appeasement’ against the ruling party, and anti-Muslim dog whistles, such as raising the spectre of West Bengal becoming a ‘mini-Pakistan’ and calling Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee ‘begum’ and ‘khala’.

The post-poll survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS and data from our study after the 2019 Lok Sabha election together point to the story of limited Hindu consolidation. This has also to do with the way the Hindu mind in West Bengal seems to be working at the moment.

 

In our 2019 survey, we asked respondents in West Bengal (and the rest of the country) a set of questions to gauge their views on secularism, the temple-mosque dispute and minority rights. Surprisingly, despite political polarisation, full-fledged communalisation had not occurred in the State, as it was found that many Hindus, including those who voted for the BJP, gave highly secular and pluralistic answers to most of these questions, and far more so than their counterparts in other regions of the country.

For instance, on a question on the 1992 Babri Masjid demolition, only one in every five Hindus in Bengal had said that demolition was justified, as opposed to two-fifths in the rest of the country. Similarly, a huge majority of Hindus in Bengal (81%) held that India is a country of all religions, and not just Hindus. The same figure among Hindus in the rest of the country was 74%.

image/svg+xml “1992 Babri Masjid demolition was..” Hindus (West Bengal) Hindus (All India) Justifed 21 39 Not Justifed 42 32 No response 37 29 “India belongs to..” Only Hindus 8 17 To all religions equally, not only Hindus 81 74 No response 11 9 “Minorities should get..” Special Treatment 32 50 Equal and not special treatment 29 29 No response 39 21 Note: Figures are percentages and may not add up to 100 due to rounding 2. Did the BJP misjudge the Bengali Hindu mind? Evidence from 2019
 

On the issue of protecting minority rights, 38% of Hindus in West Bengal agreed with the proposition that even if it is not liked by the majority community, the government must protect the interests of minorities. This sentiment, in fact, strengthened further to 58% this time, when we repeated this question in our survey.

Also read: Subaltern Hindutva on the wane in West Bengal?

What these responses indicate is that even as average Bengali Hindus may have supported the BJP in large numbers in 2019, the reasons for doing so were different and not necessarily an endorsement of the BJP’s Hindutva agenda. This perhaps explains why the BJP’s support among Hindu voters declined this time instead of increasing. Heavily polarising rhetoric by the BJP in the recent election may well have alienated the liberal tolerant section of the Bengali Hindus from the BJP, particularly the traditional Left voters, who had shown interest in the party in 2019. It also seems to have had the effect of scaring Muslims who consolidated in even larger proportions (75%) behind the Trinamool Congress than they had in 2019. The Trinamool, thus, ended up benefiting both ways.

image/svg+xml Should the State government get another chance? “The Mamata Banerjee government gives undue favour to Muslims” % HOW THEY VOTED Trinamool BJP Hindus who fully agreed with the statement 36 18 72 Hindus who somewhat agreed 32 45 41 Hindus who somewhat disagreed 4 68 25 Hindus who fully disagreed 11 70 19 No response 17 45 42 Note: Figures are percentages, the rest of the voters voted for other parties and candidates. 3. Even as most Hindus agreed that the Mamata Banerjee government had favored Muslims unduly, many of them still voted for the Trinamool Congress, particularly those who agreed only partially
 

The story, of course, has another side. There is some traction to the idea that the government accorded undue favours to minorities. While a majority of the Hindus in the rest of the country had no problem with it, in West Bengal, the support for the idea was lukewarm, with many being ambivalent on the issue. In fact, in the 2021 survey, most Hindus, even the ones who ended up voting for the Trinamool Congress, agreed with the proposition that the party had given undue favours to Muslims during its tenure, an issue that the BJP had raised. It is nonetheless interesting that many of them continued to vote for the Trinamool despite holding this view.

None of this is to say that there was no polarisation on religious lines in this election. But the divide was mostly restricted to seats where the Muslim population was higher in proportion. It is also important to note that the Hindu share in the Trinamool’s votes was 57% this time and the Muslim share was 42%; in 2019, it had been 50% for each.

image/svg+xml Voted for Trinamool Voted for BJP Hindu vote choice in seats with... Muslims <10% population 43 42 Muslim 10-19% 42 46 Muslims 20-29% 26 68 Muslims 30-39% 40 53 Muslim 40%+ 24 65 Muslims <10% population 74 20 Muslim 10-19% 87 3 Muslims 20-29% 70 13 Muslims 30-39% 84 5 Muslim 40%+ 72 6 Note: Figures are percentages, the rest of the voters voted for other parties. 4. Hindus tended to vote more for the BJP in seats with higher proportion of Muslims, but the battle for the Hindu vote was neck and neck elsewhere Muslim vote choice in seats with...
 

In sum, the BJP, which prides itself on knowing the Hindu mind, may have failed spectacularly in deciphering the Bengali Hindu psyche. It has been unable to transform the majority community into a minority-hating monolith.

Moreover, the majority community was also divided on the basis of caste, class, gender and other social identities, and the Hindutva campaign clearly fell short in catering to everyday concerns around development and livelihood. In the cultural rubric of Bengal’s politics, there was limited room for uni-dimensional religious polarisation, a fact that the BJP took very lightly.

Suprio Basu is with the Department of Sociology, University of Kalyani; Jyotiprasad Chatterjee is Associate Professor of Sociology at Barrackpore Rastraguru Surendranath College; Shreyas Sardesai is a Research Associate at Lokniti-CSDS, Delhi; Suhas Palshikar is the Co-Director of the Lokniti programme


Our code of editorial values

This article is closed for comments.
Please Email the Editor

Printable version | Jun 24, 2021 12:33:11 AM | https://www.thehindu.com/elections/west-bengal-assembly/csds-lokniti-survey-the-limits-to-polarisation-in-bengal/article34494009.ece

In This Package
Assam Assembly Elections | Hindu consolidation pays off for BJP
Assam Assembly Elections | Mahajot fails to net tribal votes
Assam Assembly Elections | Beyond community vote, urban, middle class voters back NDA
Assam Assembly Elections | Sonowal scores higher than Sarma, despite the latter making steady gains
Huge win: BJP supporters celebrating at the party's State head office in Guwahati on May 2, 2021.
Assam Assembly elections | Welfare measures not a decisive factor
Assam Assembly elections | CAA, NRC evoke mixed sentiments
Kerala Assembly Elections | How the Left Front bucked a decades-old trend in Kerala
Kerala Assembly Elections | Votes for tackling the coronavirus
Kerala Assembly Elections | Social demographics shaped the elections
Kerala Assembly Elections | Not ready for a third force
Kerala Assembly Elections | Sabarimala did not become an electoral issue
Kerala Assembly Elections | A shift in social basis of voting
You are reading
West Bengal Assembly Elections | The limits to polarisation in Bengal
West Bengal Assembly Elections | Development mattered most, not corruption
West Bengal Assembly Elections | Women rally behind Trinamool
West Bengal Assembly Elections | Subaltern Hindutva on the wane?
West Bengal Assembly Elections | BJP failed to attract Congress, Left supporters
West Bengal Assembly Elections | Longest elections did not help BJP
What post-poll numbers tell us about the elections, and how our politics is evolving | The Hindu In Focus Podcast
Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections | The caste calculus in DMK’s win
Tamil Nadu Assembly elections | A silent yearning for an alternative force?
Tamil Nadu Assembly elections | The impact of social factors
Local factors determine electoral outcomes in States
Local issues crucial to voters across States: survey
Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections | The land of the rising sun
T.N. Assembly polls | BJP: a liability rather than asset
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam. File
TN Assembly polls | Did last-minute sops help the AIADMK?
Tamil Nadu Assembly polls | Leadership play a key role
Tamil Nadu Assembly polls | Methodology of post-poll survey
Next Story