After the Assembly polls were announced, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed five rallies in Chhattisgarh targeting Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel over the alleged Mahadev app scam and accusing the Congress of engaging in appeasement politics. The BJP and its leaders referred to their election promises as ‘Modi’s guarantees’. The party contested the elections without naming a chief ministerial candidate. Therefore, it is important to examine voters’ perceptions of leadership.
The data suggest that the local candidate emerged as the primary factor in influencing their vote (34% of voters stated that they considered the local candidate while voting) followed by preference for a party (29%). Another 17% considered Mr. Modi while making their voting choice.
Congress voters leaned towards both the candidate and the party (34% and 31% respectively) whereas other than local candidates, BJP voters allocated nearly equal importance to Mr. Modi and the party. This suggests that while Mr. Modi holds substantial sway over BJP supporters, the local connection was not missed (Table 1).
Over half of the BJP’s voters (55%) said that they would have voted for the BJP even if Mr. Modi had not been the face of the electoral campaigns. Like in Madhya Pradesh, one in every five voters reported that Mr. Modi’s presence in the campaign was critical to their choice of vote for the BJP (Table 2).
Although Raman Singh was not projected as the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate, he was the most preferred choice for the post. Nearly 60% of BJP voters expressed their preference for him. On the other hand, the popularity of Bhupesh Baghel was much higher among Congress voters (Table 3).
Overall, and within the BJP, around one-third respondents felt that announcing Mr. Singh as the chief ministerial candidate would have made some difference to their voting decision (Table 4).
The methodology used for the Lokniti-CSDS survey
Lokniti-CSDS survey | Note on weight application on data
