The scale of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s victory in Chhattisgarh caught many observers by surprise, especially since many exit polls had projected either a tough fight or a Congress victory. Finally, a 4 percentage point difference in vote share between the BJP and the Congress led to a wide margin of difference in the number of seats won. While the BJP registered a four-fold increase in the number of seats won since the last election, the Congress’s tally reduced by nearly half (Table 1).
The survey data indicate the factors that contributed to the defeat of the Congress and the victory of the BJP. Unemployment, price rise, and corruption went against the Congress; the BJP’s election campaign appears to have swung the tide in favour of it.
Popular perceptions about the performance of the Narendra Modi-led Central government and the Bhupesh Baghel-led State government did appear to have an impact. The Central government had much higher levels of appreciation and this tilted the vote in favour of the BJP. Support for the State government was less intense and the Congress received less support even among those who conceded that they were marginally satisfied with the government.
On the question of dealing with farmers’ distress, the State government received a reasonably high rating with close to half the respondents saying the conditions of farmers had improved. However, on three other factors the party fared poorly. Close to half the respondents (47%) said that the government faired badly on tackling unemployment. More than two-thirds (68%) felt that corruption had increased during the last five years. And eight of every 10 respondents (81%) saw prices increase during the five years of the government.
The election campaign too appears to have swayed voter preference. Only one-fourth of the respondents (23%) said that they had decided their vote before the formal election process began. This is a much lower number than we see in some other States. Another one-fourth (25%) made their voting decision after the candidates were announced. Two-thirds (32%) decided their vote during the campaign period and one-sixth (17%) made their decision on the day of voting. As close to half the voters decided who to vote for during the campaign and on the last day of voting, the campaign trends appear to have clearly swayed them. Among those who said that they decided who to vote for after the start of the campaign, larger numbers voted for the BJP.
Close to one-sixth of the voters (17%) mentioned the Modi factor as influencing their voting decision. The Prime Minister campaigned extensively in the State. Only one in every 10 respondents (12%) highlighted the chief ministerial candidate. The BJP did not declare a Chief Minister face and went into the campaign under a collective State leadership. The Congress, on the other hand, had made Chief Minister Baghel the face of its campaign. Additionally, only 3% mentioned Rahul Gandhi as a factor influencing their voting decision.
Corruption and unemployment were key elements in the BJP’s campaign. The respondents were divided on whether the Chief Minister was involved in the alleged Mahadev App scam or was being dragged into it. This could have been a key factor for those who decided who to vote for during the campaign and just a few days before the election.
The survey data also show the support the two parties enjoyed among different demographic segments (Table 2). The BJP was ahead of the Congress in all the age groups. It enjoyed support from both men and women, particularly women. It also performed better than the Congress both among the unlettered (7 points higher) and those with access to higher education (7 points higher). The BJP performed better in both urban and rural areas as compared to its rival. It had a clear lead among poor voters (10 points) as compared to the Congress and secured more than half the votes of the rich (18 points ahead of the Congress).
As seen in Table 3, the BJP had a higher vote share than the Congress among all social groups save the Dalits and Muslims (among these sections Congress did better). The BJP did exceptionally well in north and south Chhattisgarh while in the central region, the Congress gave a tough fight in terms of seats won. It can be noted here that Congress had swept the 2018 Assembly elections in south Chhattisgarh.
The methodology used for the Lokniti-CSDS survey
Lokniti-CSDS survey | Note on weight application on data
