The results from the Chhattisgarh election turned up a surprise for political observers, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) dramatically returning to power after the five-year tenure of the Congress.
The Congress’s campaign rested on two main pillars: the government’s performance in terms of infrastructure and welfare schemes, and caste politics. In the former category, the Congress focused its efforts on farmers, making promises for minimum price and procurement guarantees. In the latter, the Congress’s campaign emphasized conducting a caste census focused on the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) of the State.
The BJP’s campaign, on the other hand, was centred around Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image, exemplified by the first page of their manifesto: “Chhattisgarh ke liye, Modi ki Guarantee 2023 [For Chhattisgarh, Modi’s Guarantee 2023]”. These guarantees included the extension and expansion of Central schemes like the PM Awas Yojana and the Ayushman Bharat scheme in the State.
Campaigning on issues of welfare and development took a backseat in the first week of November, as the Enforcement Directorate (ED) issued a statement saying that it was probing an alleged payment of over ₹500 crore over some time to Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel by a betting app promoter. The statement was issued on November 3 – four days before the first phase of the election in the State. The BJP pounced on this and the Prime Minister aimed Mr. Baghel during the campaign: “30 take kakka, khule aam satta [30% commission government, openly running betting]. The person who linked the money’s source and Mr. Baghel categorically denied the ED’s allegations a week after the second phase of polling closed.
However, it came all too late for the Congress. The campaign descended into a slugfest after the allegations, taking away the attention from the Congress government’s wide-ranging development initiatives and welfare schemes.
The survey by Lokniti-CSDS shows that over 40% of people decided whom to vote for during the campaign (Table 1). Just below a third of the people decided whom to vote for late, while less than a quarter of the people had decided in advance. The vote share was split almost equally between the Congress and the BJP among those who decided late, with the Congress edging the BJP by just 1%. The BJP was ahead among the people who decided to vote during the campaign, scoring 46% of the vote share compared with the Congress’s 41% (Table 2).
Considering that the majority of people decided during the campaign, this difference is even more relevant in understanding the election result. However, the biggest difference in vote share between parties is among those who had decided early. Nearly half of the people who decided early had decided to vote for the BJP (48%), with the Congress lagging behind at 39%. This may represent the BJP’s loyal cadre in the State.
Campaign effectiveness
Both the BJP and the Congress reached a similar proportion of voters through door-to-door canvassing: 66% and 63%, respectively. Almost half of the people who were approached by the BJP ended up voting for them, with the Congress far behind at 39%. Of all the people the Congress reached by phone calls, SMS or WhatsApp, 48% voted for the party, with the BJP behind at 43%. Similarly, over half of the people reached by the BJP chose to vote for the party, with the Congress far behind at 40%. The Congress campaign seemed to be more efficient in respect of digital contacting, but the party did not reach as many voters as the BJP did (Table 3).
Thus a little more effective campaign than that of the Congress and the party’s loyal voters and the voters who were influenced during the campaign made it easier for the BJP to surpass the Congress.
Suhas Palshikar taught political science and is chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics and Aadyot Prakash is researcher at Lokniti-CSDS
The methodology used for the Lokniti-CSDS survey
Lokniti-CSDS survey | Note on weight application on data
