Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 6% to 1.15 billion units, the lowest in a decade.
Regional macro risks extending smartphone replacement rates, and negative growth rates in Asia ex-China/India, North America, and China are likely being the biggest drivers of negative growth, Counterpoint said in a blog post.
Asia is being seen as one of the major hurdles to positive growth due to the halt in economic turnaround anticipated for China, along with broader region experiences that have intensified decline across emerging markets.
Noth Amera is expected to continue to be a major drag on global recovery with consumers delaying upgrades. The replacement rate of devices for the U.S. and globally are also at a record high, the post said.
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A decoupling between what’s happening in the economy and consumers buying phones has led to record low upgrades across all carriers, Jeff Fieldhack, Research Director for North America, Counterpoint said.
Premiumisation to benefit Apple
While researchers are watching out for Q4, 2023 with interest because of the iPhone 15 launch. They expect Apple to be in a good spot with aggressive promos being offered to get more users of the iPhone 12 installed base to upgrade.
Apple is well positioned as the premium segment continues to gain more share in China as well, Ethan Qi, Associate Director for China said.
And with the global trend towards the growth of premium and ultra-premium devices, 2023 could start a new era for Apple as a resilient premium market and strong sales in the U.S. could aid the company to take the top spot.
