In 2014, Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP) N. Chandrababu Naidu stormed into power in Andhra Pradesh and became the Chief Minister of the State for the third time. He had defeated his closest rival Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy of the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP).
But at that time he rode the ‘Modi’ wave, as TDP had fought the election in alliance with the BJP and actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party (JSP) and he was part of the NDA.
Again for the upcoming General and Assembly elections, the same combination is back as Mr. Naidu had quit the alliance over differences that cropped up on the agreement of allotting Special Category Status (SCS).
Many terms this move of the alliance as an ‘opportunistic’ as primarily BJP wants to regain its lost ground in Andhra Pradesh and Mr. Naidu needs a strong ally to take on the might of Mr. Jagan Reddy.
But the question is whether this combination will work this time.
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Primarily, Mr. Pawan had joined hands with the TDP in September 2023. He had gone ahead announcing the alliance when Mr. Naidu was serving the judicial remand period for his alleged involvement in the Andhra Pradesh Skill Development Corporation scam. This did not go well with the BJP’s State leadership and they openly came forward to say that the BJP was not consulted and it was Mr. Pawan’s decision.
It took almost five months for Mr. Pawan and Mr. Naidu to seal the deal. Even after the deal was finalised, there was dissent among the mid and lower rung BJP leadership in the State and they are not happy with it. They were open in saying that it was Mr. Naidu who had walked out of the 2014 alliance in 2018 and that he attacked Mr. Modi ferociously both at political and personal levels. With this as a backdrop, the working of the alliance may not have the bonhomie that was present in the 2014 election.
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As of now the primary concern for all the three parties is the seat-sharing issue. The BJP struck a hard bargain to wrest about six Lok Sabha seats, this leaves TDP with 17 seats and JSP with just two seats. Coming to the Assembly, TDP will contest 144 seats, BJP in 10 and JSP in 21.
In the seat-sharing, some of the prominent names were seen missing in the TDP, which is no doubt the most dominant party among the three and has a vote share of about 40 percent. It is also the party that has the strongest cadre base and can field potential MLA candidates from all the 25 Lok Sabha constituencies and 175 Assembly seats.
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With just about six to seven weeks left for the elections, Mr. Naidu is now busy firefighting the dissidence within his party.
In 2014, though JSP was part of the alliance, it did not fight the elections. JSP also walked out of the alliance and had gone to the polls in 2019 with the Bahujan Samaj Party and the left parties. It could win only one seat, with Mr. Pawan himself losing from both seats — Gajuwaka and Bhimavaram.
In 2014, BJP had a vote share of about four percent and could win four MLA seats and two Lok Sabha seats, but in 2019 it dropped to below one and drew a nil.
Most importantly, there is considerable resentment against the national party, and people blame it for not giving the SCS, completing the Polavaram project, non operational Railway Zone in Visakhapatnam and putting up a public sector like Visakhapatnam Steel Plant for sale.
No assurances
At this juncture, the electorate of Andhra Pradesh had anticipated that Mr. Modi would give some concrete assurance during his speech at Chilakaluripet on March 17. This was Mr. Modi’s first public appearance after the elections were declared and it was also the first after the alliance was sealed with TDP and JSP. The YSRCP’s Advisor (public affairs) Sajjala Ramakrishna Reddy, had gone on record calling the alliance a farce, as the PM had not given assurance to anything.
Political pundits feel that if BJP has to regain some of its lost ground, then some assurances have to be given. It should be similar to what Union Minister Amit Shah had done in Chhattisgarh. Just before the Assembly polls, he assured in a public meeting that the NMDC’s Nagarnar steel, which was also put up for sale, would not be privatised. And that had an impact in changing the tide for the BJP in its favour.
