Campaigning is languid and politics cold in Nagaland, which is to elect a new Assembly on February 27. Long-pending issues regarding regional autonomy exist around a demand for carving out a State in the eastern region, but Nagaland appears to have achieved a typical equilibrium that hinges on transactional politics. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its regional partner, the Nationalist Democratic People’s Party (NDPP), are continuing with their 2018 seat-sharing formula: contesting 20 and 40 seats, respectively. The Opposition Naga People’s Front (NPF) joined the NDPP-BJP government in August 2021 in a ‘united push’ to solve the vexed “Indo-Naga political issue”, a euphemism for the final settlement with extremist groups, primarily the NSCN (Isak-Muivah). Voters, parties and other groups appear to be at peace with the Opposition-devoid arrangement of politics. Of the NPF’s 25 MLAs, 21 merged with the NDPP in April 2022, but most were denied a ticket; one moved over to the BJP to become one of its 20 candidates. The Congress, decimated in 2018, has 24 candidates while the once-formidable NPF has named 22 candidates.
Demand for a Frontier Nagaland State remains an issue despite the withdrawal of a poll boycott call by the organisation fighting for it, across six districts in the eastern part of the State encompassing 20 constituencies. The most talked about issue, as in the past elections since 2003, is the peace process with extremist groups. Political ideology has a limited role in Nagaland, and elections are usually fought around personalities and their capacity to project proximity towards the ruling establishment in Delhi. Electoral calculations by groups are made around central funds, which form the foundation of the State’s rent-driven political economy. The BJP-NDPP alliance had characterised 2018 as an ‘election for solution’ to the autonomy question. The Centre signed the Framework Agreement with the NSCN (I-M) in August 2015 and the Agreed Position with the Naga National Political Groups (a federation of seven outfits that have joined the talks), in November 2017 — towards resolving the insurgency, but soon ran into a stalemate over a separate Naga flag and Naga constitution. The extremists have demanded a political settlement before polling, accusing the BJP of betraying Naga trust. The new government will have its hands full.
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