(The Political Line newsletter is India’s political landscape explained every week by Varghese K. George, senior editor at The Hindu . You can subscribe here to get the newsletter in your inbox every Friday.)
Balance, and imbalance, of India’s growing population
World Population Day on July 11 was an occasion to revisit the population debate in India. India is all set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country next year. Its status as the most populous country on the planet may buttress India’s claim to be a member of the UN Security Council, according to a UN official. This calculation advances the milestone of India surpassing China by three years -- it was earlier expected to happen in 2027. India’s fast march to becoming the most populous country on the planet, a position it will retain through the century, will have many other known and unknowable consequences, other than its impact on the country’s bid for a permanent seat in the UNSC.
Whether and how India should manage or control its population growth remains a controversial question as ever. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said population control should not lead to demographic imbalance between religions.
Clearly, the CM is alluding to a familiar trope of Hindutva politics for more than a century, the notion that Hindus would one day be overrun by Muslims. Yes, it is true that Muslims have a slightly higher fertility rate than others, but the fact of the matter is that fertility rates are declining across all religious groups, and the trend is sharpest among Muslims.
The call for Hindus to produce more children comes from various platforms associated with the Sangh Parivar.
India’s population will peak by mid-century, and after 2050 it might decline. How sharp that decline will be is a matter of debate. There is an argument that India will have nearly half as many people as it now has, by the end of the century. But there is no debate on the fact that fertility is declining, and will continue to decline.
To talk about population growth in India as if it is uniform across the country is misleading. The regional variations in demographic patterns in India are immense, and they can create extremely volatile politics. The imbalance of the kind that Mr. Adityanath speaks about, the religious disparity, is much less significant than the regional disparities. States such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu have already peaked, and their populations will now age and decline; States such as Karnataka will get there soon; and States such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will continue to grow for several decades. The workforce for India’s economy will come from these States that are yet to reach their potential demographic sweet spot. But these imbalances in the demographic trajectory are a source of conflict and strife too.
In the midst of such grave questions, a BJP minister from Nagaland has a simple yet radical suggestion, to keep population growth in check. Temjen Imna Along, who belongs to the BJP, has advised people to stay single like him!
Talking of movement of people, Kerala is one State which is a major source and destination of migrants, at once. It was in Kerala where the first case of COVID-19 was found in January 2020 after a student who was studying at Wuhan in China returned home. This week, the first monkeypox case in the country was reported in Kerala, after a migrant from the State returned from the UAE.
What does I2U2 say about the emerging world order?
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan speaks to reporters during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, U.S. | Photo Credit: Reuters
The grouping of countries that is making news is India, Israel, the UAE and the U.S. or I2U2, as its rather cryptic yet meaningful acronym goes. They have said many things about what it is; an American official even compared it to Quad. What they have not said is worth taking note of too. The three countries except the U.S. -- India, the UAE and Israel -- maintain close contacts with Russia, which is America’s main adversary at the moment. Barring India, the other two, the UAE and Israel, have excellent relations with China too. The UAE is not a democracy while Israel, India and the U.S. are. All these suggest that the notion that a new divide among nations will pitch democracies against the rest is difficult to substantiate. In fact, I2U2 at one level is an American acceptance that isolating Russia or China is no easy game.
Federalism Tract
How Nagas are viewed
You read about the BJP Minister in Nagaland who has a great sense of humour. I am hoping to meet him one of these days and will write more, but for now, here is his take on how Nagas are viewed in the heartland.
Language issues in TN
S. Ramadoss
PMK founder S. Ramadoss wants Hindi inscriptions on the name board of the Central Institute of Classical Tamil (CICT) in Tamil Nadu removed. Along with Tamil and English, the board bears the name in Hindi too. The Dravidian-Aryan divide was a British conspiracy, according to TN Governor R. N. Ravi. He’s not entirely correct, as emerging genetic evidence continues to demonstrate.
Tension in Meghalaya
About 50 tribals from a village on the Assam-Meghalaya border were chased out on Monday night for allegedly betraying the community by opting to stay with Assam. A tribal council in Meghalaya has called for a meeting of traditional heads to revisit the Instrument of Accession that made the Khasi domain a part of the Indian Union more than seven decades ago.
