(This is the latest edition of the Political Line newsletter curated by Varghese K. George. The Political Line newsletter is India’s political landscape explained every week. You can subscribe here to get the newsletter in your inbox.)
Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and K Chandrashekhar Rao of Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) are two leaders to be watched among non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) players as battle lines for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are being drawn. The first with his presence, and the second with his absence at a conclave of opposition leaders in Patna in Bihar on June 23, muddied the waters for opposition unity. Here’s a quick overview of signals from Patna where leaders of 15 opposition parties gathered and resolved to work towards defeating the BJP in 2024.
Mr. Kejriwal’s politics is based on a ‘my way or the highway’ principle, and now he wants the Congress to toe his line on an ordinance through which the Centre snatched some powers of the Delhi government that he leads. He was present at the Patna conclave but struck a discordant note inside and outside the meeting. Mr. Kejriwal was reminded by Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leader Mehbooba Mufti that his party had supported the BJP move to strip not only the autonomy but also the statehood of Jammu and Kashmir.
All other parties told Mr. Kejriwal that he can’t make preconditions to partnerships, but that hardly restrains him. In fact, when other parties were crying foul about the overreach of central agencies, Mr. Kejriwal had stayed aloof. In several State elections, AAP contested in a manner that turned out to be beneficial for the BJP, Gujarat being the latest example. The AAP supremo turned federalist and a champion of opposition unity when his government got caught in corruption scandals. Two of his ministers were arrested and sent to jail by central agencies on charges of corruption. Meanwhile, the AAP government in Punjab is accused of political vendetta by the State Congress unit.
Telangana Chief Minister (CM) Mr. Rao was trying to emerge as the face of non-Congress, non-BJP opposition until recently, but that attempt collapsed. He was also softening his stance towards the Congress which appeared to be weakening in Telangana where the BJP showed signs of an ascent. The Karnataka victory turned the tide for the Congress and against the BJP in the south. The Congress has suddenly gained some ground in Telangana, and the BJP State unit is caught in internal rivalries and confusion. All this appears to have prompted Mr. Rao to recalculate: his target is now again the Congress. The BRS leader is trying to build a campaign in Maharashtra, and the advances of his party would be at the cost of the Congress and its partners, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). He gave the Patna conclave a skip.
These two Chief Ministers are unpredictable at the moment. Among the participants at the Patna conclave, West Bengal CM and Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader, and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav want the Congress to vacate the field for the sake of opposition unity. That is not going to be acceptable for the Congress.
Nitish Kumar, who is rooting for the Congress in a self-serving move, is at the weakest moment in his political life and is trying to use it as a crutch. Among those present in Patna, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the NCP, and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) group are parties that make natural allies of the Congress in the current scenario. Their interests converge, and there is a mutual reinforcement through alliances in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. That said, the DMK is under severe pressure from central investigating agencies that are closing in on people close to Chief Minister M.K. Stalin.
Opposition unity is an exaggerated concept, because each party has its own calculations with regard to the BJP and the Congress. There is no reason to assume that they are all united in opposing the BJP.
What matters for 2024 is the weight the Congress can pull solo. If the Congress can corner other parties to accepting its leadership position for their own interests, the challenge against the BJP could get stronger. That’s the Big Picture.
Federalism Tract: Notes on Indian Diversity
Bengal and Bengalis
Does West Bengal have a foundation day? The BJP and the State Governor think June 20, 1947 is the day the State was formed. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her party the TMC do not think so. Overlooking the protest by the elected government, the Governor organised foundation day celebrations.
The basis of this controversy is a rapid development on June 20, 1947, in the legislative assembly of the undivided British province of Bengal. The Assembly had to decide on whether Bengal would stay united or divided, and which country it would be a part of: India or Pakistan, the new country that was taking shape. There was also a proposal in the background for Bengal to be an independent country. As it happened, one resolution in a sitting of all members from east and west Bengal voted for staying united and joining Pakistan. A second resolution passed by only the members from the Muslim-majority east voted for staying united, and in the event of partition, for east Bengal to go with Pakistan. A third resolution by members from the west resolved to partition the province, and for it to join the Indian nation. According to the Mountbatten plan, either of the two parts, Hindu-majority West or the Muslim-minority East could call for partition. As it happened, both sides were left with significant minority populations: Muslims in the West and Hindus in the East.
The Sangh Parivar, and the BJP consider the decision of the legislators from the West to call for partition as the founding moment of the State. Ms. Banerjee, and others who are inclined towards Bengali regionalism think that day marked the unfortunate division of a people who share the same culture and language, but different religions. The memories of partition violence and the debates around that time are staple for the BJP’s revivalist politics. Apart from a nation-wide observance of partition day on August 14, there are also other commemorations such as Hyderabad Liberation Day by the BJP Central government. Two parallel celebrations happened on September 17, 2022 in Hyderabad; one to mark ‘Hyderabad Liberation Day’ by the Central government and the other to mark ‘National Integration Day’ by the Telangana government.
In Tamil Nadu, the Governor R.N. Ravi also celebrated West Bengal foundation day, warning about too much emphasis on diversity that he thinks ruins national unity.
Family as community
Cultural autonomy of minorities and group rights alongside individual rights, are considered progressive in our understanding of democracy. Not infrequently, such group rights are invoked by a minority elite to enrich themselves in the name of the community. The ongoing controversy in Punjab over the telecast rights of gurbani — the unceasing chanting of the holy book of Sikhism at the Golden Temple in Amritsar — brings this fact to the forefront. The Punjab government led by the AAP wants to break the monopoly of the channel owned by the Badal family that has been in power in the State for decades. Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee, the body responsible for managing gurdwaras, and the century-old Shiromani Akali Dal party which is controlled by the Badals have reacted sharply to the passage of the Bill, as an interference in the rights of the Sikhs.
Punjab asserts over universities, policing
The Punjab State Assembly made new laws that curtail the power of the Governor on universities by removing them from the post of chancellors and ending the role of the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) in the appointment of police chiefs.The UPSC was given a role in the appointment of Director General of Police by the Supreme Court, with the caveat that States could make laws on the question. With a new law in place, Punjab follows Andhra Pradesh and Telangana which had already made laws on this.
Kukis trust the Centre
The Supreme Court on June 20 termed the Manipur ethnic violence, which has left nearly 100 dead, a “purely law and order issue”, while “hoping” that courts will not be asked to deploy the Army or Central security forces.
A lot in the name…
In Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena (Shinde)-BJP government is continuing with the renaming of districts. The attempt is to erase the Islamic links of places, and in some instances also foreground the memories about regional heroes.
