The writings on the wall had long been clear in Uttarakhand , with the Congress led by Chief Minister Harish Rawat fighting a losing battle. And so it did not come as too much of a surprise when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) romped home with the highest margin since the formation of the State 17 years ago. Riding on the Modi wave, it bagged 57 of the 70 Assembly seats in the State, with the Congress winning just 11. Mr. Rawat, who waged a lonely battle for his party, lost both the seats he contested. Even the president of the State unit of the party, Kishore Upadhyay, lost his election. A majority of Mr. Rawat’s Cabinet colleagues also bit the dust.
Mr. Rawat had survived an attempt to topple his government last year after a section of Congress leaders joined hands with the opposition BJP. His government survived only after the intervention of the courts but it was clear that he had lost popular support. The Rawat government faced several allegations of corruption and maladministration. Even during the attempted coup led by some of his colleagues last year, a sting operation had allegedly exposed the Chief Minister himself offering to look the other way in exchange of support to him. The issue is now being investigated under a directive from the courts.
Ploughing a lonely furrow
Hardly any senior Congress leader campaigned in Uttarakhand. Even party vice-president Rahul Gandhi addressed just a couple of election rallies, which too did not evoke much response. In an effort to woo the large number of youth in the State, Mr. Rawat announced an attractive but controversial ‘Berojgari bhatta’ (unemployment allowance) card promising one job per household for those unemployed between the ages of 18 and 35, by 2020.
The scheme also provided for a monthly allowance of ₹2,500 for one jobless member of each family for 36 months to all such card-holders.
The Election Commission later directed the State authorities to stop the distribution of cards although over 10,000 people had registered within 48 hours of its launch.
However, such last-hour promises failed to cut much ice with the electorate, which turned out in huge numbers at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three major public rallies in Uttarakhand. This, despite the fact that the State unit of the BJP was in bad shape and facing internal rebellion. In fact, State BJP president Ajay Bhatt eventually lost to his Congress rival by a margin of over 49,000 votes in Ranikhet.
The rebellion within the State unit of the BJP resulted from the unsuccessful attempt last year to topple the Rawat government. The party had to accommodate all nine Congress rebel MLAs, including former Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna. Those denied the party ticket to make way for the Congress rebels joined the Congress. Interestingly, almost 80% of the constituencies in the State had rebels contesting against their party’s candidates.
A targeted BJP campaign
The BJP had several factors going in its favour. It pitched its campaign to target the youth, who make up more than half the electorate. The party announced several schemes for them including unemployment allowance and creation of jobs. It also announced many developmental schemes for the State.
Uttarakhand has the distinction of contributing a disproportionately large number of personnel to the defence forces and other paramilitary forces. It also has a large number of retired personnel from these forces settled in the State. The BJP’s campaign targeted the roughly 1.75 lakh such households, which makes up a substantial vote bank in the small hill State. The party pitched the successful surgical strikes and never failed to mention the contribution of the State towards the defence forces. The acceptance of the demand for ‘One Rank, One Pension’ (OROP) also gained popular goodwill for the party.
The performance of the BJP in Uttarakhand is likely to have an impact on the party’s fortunes in the neighbouring hill State of Himachal Pradesh where elections are due later this year.
Vipin Pubby is a Chandigarh-based journalist
