In the high voltage Mainpuri bypoll battle, both the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP), the two prime contenders to the seat, are engaged in a fierce no-holds-barred campaign after the nominations of seven out of 13 candidates was rejected.
Contrary to previous byelections, held after the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, where the SP’s top leadership refrained from addressing even a single rally, the party has deputed all its might and organisational strength in Mainpuri, claiming the election belongs to the SP’s founder and five-time Lok Sabha member from the seat, the late Mulayam Singh Yadav, whose demise necessitated the bypoll.
Party president Akhilesh Yadav, along with other top leaders such as the SP’s general secretary and Rajya Sabha MP Ram Gopal Yadav, and former Lok Sabha MP Dharmendra Yadav, are engaged in door-to-door campaigning for the party’s nominee, Dimple Yadav, wife of Mr. Akhilesh Yadav.
The bypoll campaign in Mainpuri has witnessed a united Yadav family, with Mr. Akhilesh Yadav reaching out to his estranged uncle and Jaswantnagar MLA, Shivpal Singh Yadav. The Jaswantnagar MLA, who supported the BJP’s nominee in the presidential polls and had vowed to never go with the SP again, is seen actively campaigning with his nephew and other party leaders. In a party workers’ meet held in Jaswantnagar on Monday, Mr. Shivpal Yadav assured the SP president that he would not let him down, and would make sure the party’s candidate, Dimple Yadav, won the prestigious byelection. “I want to tell Akhilesh I am associated with Netaji [Mulayam Singh Yadav] since childhood. Today, he is not with us, hence this election is significant. We will have to ensure Dimple wins from here,” Mr. Shivpal Yadav said.
BJP focus
While the BJP, which takes every bypoll seriously, is fully focused on winning Mainpuri by naming as its nominee former MP Raghuraj Singh Shakya, who belongs to Shakya community, an Other Backward Class (OBC). The saffron party’s arithmetic behind Mr. Shakya’s candidature is his social affiliation as the community constitutes the second largest electorate after Yadavs in the parliamentary segment, with roughly three lakh votes. The BJP’s star campaigners’ list for the bypoll includes Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, apart from the State leadership. The inclusion of Mr. Singh holds significance as the Rajput community to which the Defence Minister belongs numbered around 1.5 lakh, and is expected to be crucial in deciding the outcome. It needs to be seen whether Mr. Singh will campaign in Mainpuri or not. The SP is hopeful that the Rajput community will support Ms. Dimple Yadav as she was also born in a Rajput family.
The U.P. BJP’s leadership, including party president Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary and secretary (organisation) Dharampal, is continuously campaigning and participating in “booth president conferences” to galvanise workers. The mantra of the BJP is “win booth, win Mainpuri”.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is likely to start campaigning on November 28. The relatively closer result of 2019 polls in Mainpuri, and the party’s recent successes in the Azamgarh and Rampur parliamentary bypolls, both seats considered the SP’s stronghold, gives hope to the BJP that it will breach the SP’s citadel. In the 2019 Lok Sabha, the BJP polled more than three lakh votes and lost by less than one lakh votes in Mainpuri.
Bearing on 2024
The Mainpuri seat is considered an SP bastion as the party has won every parliamentary election there since 1996, and political observers feel the emphasis on Mainpuri by both of U.P.’s main political players, is not only because it’s the late legend Mulayam Singh’s constituency, but also because the outcome will have a bearing on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in U.P.
“The Mainpuri bypoll is not an ordinary parliamentary byelection; it will have far-reaching consequences. If the BJP wins Mainpuri, like it won both the Azamgarh and Rampur bypolls, the narrative across the State would be that principal Opposition party is not at all capable of stopping the BJP juggernaut. Whatever space the SP secured after winning 111 Assembly seats in the 2022 polls will vanish,” Manindra Nath Thakur, who teaches at the Centre for Political Studies in Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, said.
Analysts also feel any adverse electoral outcome would create new space in the State’s opposition, for which two other major political parties, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress, are waiting. “If the SP loses Mainpuri, it will create space for the Congress and the BSP, which would then try to project to Muslim voters how the SP is not capable of challenging the BJP in 2024 as the party was defeated in its own backyard,” Mr. Thakur added.
