India will spend nearly ₹143 lakh crore on infrastructure between fiscals 2024 and 2030, more than twice the ₹67 lakh crore spent in the past seven financial years starting 2017, rating agency CRISIL said on Tuesday.
Of the total, ₹36.6 lakh crore will be green investments, marking a five times rise compared with the amount spent during fiscals 2017-2023, it added.
“India’s infrastructure spending will double to ₹143 lakh crore between fiscals 2024 and 2030, compared with 2017-2023,” CRISIL said in its Infrastructure Yearbook 2023.
CRISIL Ltd. managing director and CEO Amish Mehta said the agency expects India's gross domestic product to grow at an average 6.7% through fiscal 2031 to be the fastest-expanding large economy.
“Per capita income is seen rising from $2,500 now to $4,500 by fiscal 2031, creating a middle-income country,” he said, adding that this growth will be underpinned by massive all-round infrastructure development, with sharp focus on integrating sustainability.”
While releasing ‘CRISIL Infrastructure Yearbook 2023’, which includes a unique national index CRISIL InfraInvex, Mehta said policy interventions and a conducive investment climate have aided the uptrend in the CRISIL InfraInvex scores across sectors.
“Four of these--roads and highways, power transmission, renewable energy and ports--have an overall score of 7-plus (out of 10), which underscores the pace of reforms and developments of the past few years,” he added.
The rating agency noted that the next phase of infrastructure development will be marked by growth in the average ticket size of projects and a significant number of mega-scale projects.
Appropriate and consistent policy and regulatory interventions and focus on timely execution build an attractive case for various stakeholders to accelerate investments across infrastructure sectors, CRISIL said.
The rating agency predicted that prominent sectors such as roads and power are expected to remain major contributors, while relatively nascent ones such as EVs, solar, wind, and hydrogen will pick up pace.
“The share of EVs in India’s overall automobile sales is likely to reach 30% by 2030.
“Two-wheeler EV sales are expected to outpace other segments up to 2028, while demand for EV buses will be driven by state transport undertakings,” it said.
According to CRISIL, favourable total cost of ownership and total cost of acquisition, as well as model availability for two- and three-wheelers will support EV offtake in the coming years.
It said the share of renewable energy in total capacity is estimated to grow 4x between fiscals 2023 and 2030.
While solar will account for half of the incremental non-fossil generation, CRISIL said there is a growing need to leverage emerging technologies such as 'floatovoltaics' (floating solar), offshore wind technology and green hydrogen.
Noting that the hydrogen sector is poised to attract substantial investments, estimated at ₹1.5 lakh crore between fiscals 2024 and 2030, the rating agency said mandates for green hydrogen use and incentive schemes will be important here considering the cost of production of green hydrogen is twice that of fossil-based hydrogen.
CRISIL said India's first sovereign green bond issuance will pave the way for the development of the domestic bond market for green issuances.
Over the past few years, global experience has shown increasing appetite for green assets among investors, leading to Indian companies seeking funds in global markets, it added.