When Alex Hales, Jonny Bairstow, Eoin Morgan & Co. hammered the Australian bowling attack at Trent Bridge last month, scaling a new ODI peak of 481 runs in 50 overs, it seemed like this was ‘a short time coming’.
After all, it was largely the same batting line-up, barring Bairstow, that had battered Pakistan at the same venue in 2016 to clock 444 in 50 overs.
Do these records, two years apart, suggest that 500 is imminent? The short answer is yes, it certainly is. After all, against Australia, England had scored 450 for three in 46 overs (run-rate: 9.78) and was on course to touch the 10-per-over mark by the 50th over. But it decelerated from that position, scoring only 31 in four overs, losing both Hales and Morgan in the 48th over.
What explains this sense of inevitability about 500?
Graph 1, which plots the all-time ODI record score and how long it stood before being broken, is illuminating.
Graph 1: A moving ceiling
Click here for full interactive
The graph shows the evolution of ODI totals. Each red dot denotes the score in an innings. The darker the shade of red, the higher the score. The blue line traces the ODI record score. Australia's 191, chasing England's 190 in the first-ever ODI in 1971, was the first. England's 481 is the current record.
The early peaks were scaled relatively swiftly. But once the record touched the 360-mark in 1987, it took longer and longer to overhaul. In these higher reaches, there have been two exceptional periods: the year 2006, when 434, 438 and 443 were set, and 2016-18 when England made 444 and 481. Indeed, between 2015 and 2018, the frequency of red dots just below the blue line shows how often the record has been threatened. Rule-changes and the proliferaton of Twenty20 cricket have played a part in the recent run-rush.
It took nearly a decade each for 360, 398, and 443 to fall. (2006 was a freak year, with Australia and South Africa setting marks of 434 and 438 in the same match in March before Sri Lanka made 443 against a weak Netherlands team in July). On the other hand, England, which took a decade to better 443, needed just two years to do it again.
The calendar heat-map (Graph 2) illustrates that in the latest period from 2015 to 2018, the incidence of run-rates higher than 5.5 per over (in innings that lasted at least 40 overs) is higher than previous periods.
Graph 2: A pattern emerges
The heat map plots run-rate ranges across time spans. The number inside each cell is the % of innings in the run-rate range for that span. For example, between 1971 and 1978, 43.2% of all innings progressed at a run-rate of 4 per over or lower. The darker the shade of blue, the higher the proportion of scores in that range.
Run-rates of 4 per over and lower are seldom seen these days. In contrast, this was the most common rate-range in the first 24 years of ODI cricket. The frequency of high run-rates (>6 per over) has increased since 2007, with the most dramatic spikes occurring in the 2015-18 period. The only score in this run-rate range came this year, England's record total at Trent Bridge
It is clear that due to a combination of rule changes, greater exposure to Twenty20 cricket and other factors, batsmen are scoring more freely than ever before.
As Table 1 shows, eight of the 19 totals over 400 have been made since 2015. Additionally, scores made at a run-rate of 8.5 and higher (at least 40 overs) have increased in this period as well: just ten innings in the 48-year history of ODI cricket have witnessed this rate (seven if you discount Zimbabwe and the Netherlands as opposition), and five have occurred in the last three and a half years. The year 2015 seems to be an inflection point of sorts.
Table 1: The age of the blockbuster
Consider individual batsmen, and this trend is even clearer. In Graph 3, which plots all batsmen’s strike-rates and averages (min: 30 innings), the recent ones shine. Of the 195 players who have batted between 2015 and 2018, 104 (53%) belong in the above-mean top-right quadrant. In comparison, just 17% of the 420 batsmen who played only in the period before 2015 fit into the same section.
Graph 3: The power generators
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The graph is a scatter plot of batsmen's averages and strike-rates. The purple plus denotes players who have played at least one game in 2015-18. The gold circles indicate players before that period. The highlighted section contains elite batsmen with high strike-rates and averages.
Among batsmen with above-mean strike-rates and averages, those who have played in the last three and a half years significantly outnumber those who played before 2015. This explains why team run-rates and scores have peaked in this period.
There are a number of current Indian and English batsmen in the elite section, suggesting a strong possibility of heavy-scoring in the upcoming series.
India captain Virat Kohli (58.1) and M.S. Dhoni (51.4) are in the highest bracket of averages. They also have very good strike-rates (92.1 and 88.4 respectively). Joss Buttler (117.5) and Jason Roy (104.5) stand out because of their strike-rates, but are consistent scorers, averaging 40.7 and 39.1 respectively. Jonny Bairstow (avg: 51.6 & strike-rate: 104) offers the best of both worlds.
More batsmen in recent years have higher averages and strike rates than before, thereby increasing the chances of scoring high totals.
The elite segment (highlighted in Graph 3) is dominated by batsmen from three countries in particular — India (Virat Kohli, M.S. Dhoni, Shikhar Dhawan, Rohit Sharma), England (Buttler, Bairstow, Jason Roy), and South Africa (the recently retired A.B. de Villiers, David Miller, Quinton de Kock and Hashim Amla). It is reasonable to posit that these are the teams with a high probability of breaking new ground.
And this could happen as early as next week!
India takes on England in a three-ODI series which will be played at Trent Bridge, Lord’s and Headingley. All three grounds have seen a significant increase in their average run-rate since 2015, as Table 2 shows. Trent Bridge, of course, is off the charts, but the other grounds have risen up the ranks as well: they are in the top 25 of 172 venues overall (minimum: 6 ODIs).
Table 2: Ground and pound
The signs are clear: topping 500 is a matter of when, not if.
(Graphics rendered by Kannan Sundar. Base data from ESPNCricinfo)
