Coronavirus | How Bengaluru fell short in tracing the source of infections

The increase in cases is the impact of Unlock 1.0, say BBMP officials

July 09, 2020 01:14 am | Updated November 28, 2021 12:50 pm IST - Bengaluru

Staying cautious:  A red alert sign put up by the BBMP at a sealed area at Shanthinagar on Wednesday.

Staying cautious: A red alert sign put up by the BBMP at a sealed area at Shanthinagar on Wednesday.

In the first week of June when most restrictions of the lockdown were lifted, the total number of active COVID-19 cases recorded every day was between 9 and 28. However, by June 19, the number rose to 138, and by the end of the month, as many as 700 people were identified with the virus. By July 4, the cases touched 1,235. What went wrong in a city that until a few weeks ago, was being lauded for its ability to restrain the spread of a virus unlike other metros such as Mumbai, Chennai and New Delhi?

An overstretched BBMP stumbled when it came to tracing the source of infection while dealing with influx of people from other States, contact tracing, and ensuring that social distancing were being followed. In early June, even though the number of cases was still low, the number of patients whose source of infection could not be identified was rising. For instance, on June 6, Bengaluru Urban district recorded only 18 cases, but the percentage of daily cases that were not traced was as high as 83% that day, as per data from the Department of Health and Family Welfare.

The increase in cases is the impact of Unlock 1.0, senior BBMP officials explained, adding that opening up of economic activity had led to an increase in mobility and interactions. “It was following the transition phase (between June 1 and 14) that the spike in cases actually started,” a civic official said.

By the end of June, the source of transmission from travel history (domestic and international) had come down to 0.29%, while it was 2.13% from primary and secondary contacts, and 7.49% from ILI (Influenza like Illness) and SARI (Severe Acute Respiratory Infection). The BBMP War Room report states ‘Report Awaited’ for the remainder of the cases.

Focus on 4Ts

A further analysis of the daily bulletin issued by the Department of Health and Family Welfare also throws up similar results. The bulletin claims there is in place a robust surveillance system with elaborate contingency plans to check the spread and that the State has relied on 4Ts – testing, tracing, tracking and treatment. From June 1 to 22, the source of transmission (for Bengaluru Urban district, which includes BBMP) was not determined in approximately 62.76% cases. In this period, the health bulletin puts the total of cases reported at 1,050, of which source of transmission was not ascertained in 659 cases.

The percentage of untraced sources of transmission has been increasing since then. Between June 23 and July 7, the health bulletin shows a total of 9,964 cases were reported. The transmission remains untraced in as many as 9,867 cases (99.02%). A marginal percentage of 9,867 include those tested with ILI and SARI symptoms, as per date from the health department.

Acknowledging this, BBMP Commissioner B.H. Anil Kumar told The Hindu that ascertaining the source of transmission and contact tracing were massive exercises. He admitted that there is a lag in the data that the BBMP and the war room have.

Underlying infections

With regard to ascertaining the source of transmission, he said this was proving difficult as there were underlying infections in various parts of the city. He also acknowledged some amount of community spread in the city, albeit sporadic. “In some cases where the patients themselves are not able to recollect where they have been or whom they have been in contact with, we list it as a source not identified. The transmission can happen any time in a 14-day period,” he said.

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