The story so far: In the 35th African Union Summit featuring the heads of State and governments, the head of the AU’s Peace and Security Council, Bankole Adeoye raised concerns over the increasing wave of military coups in the continent, especially in West Africa. This had led to an unprecedented number of member States being suspended from the bloc recently.
- Between 2020 and 2022, there already have been 6 successful military coups and 3 failed ones. Burkina Faso became the fourth country to be suspended by the African Union for the breakdown of democracy by such coups after Guinea, Mali and Sudan.
- In Burkina Faso, the military takeover in January 2022 took place after months of unrest due to anti-Government protests demanding the resignation of President Kabore. The unrest in Burkina Faso has been attributed as a fallout of the violent conflict organised by jihadist groups in Mali that began in 2012, that has since engulfed the entire Central Sahel region. President Kabore’s regime used the military to quell the jihadist groups in the country, but with several instances of militant abuse and violent massacres happening, the jihadist threats only grew with some civilian support leading to the eventual takeover.
- The Economic Community of West African States announced sanctions on Mali seeking to discourage further coups, but this did not deter the coup in Burkina Faso. Regional and international actors should focus on reforms that could help governance in these countries rather than just military strategies.
What has been the trend with coups in Africa recently?
Just a few weeks prior to the Summit, Burkina Faso became the fourth country to be suspended by the African Union after President Roch Marc Christian Kabore’s regime was toppled by soldiers. Earlier, Guinea, Mali and Sudan were also suspended because of similar putsches that had occurred in the respective countries.
This set of recent coups in the continent reversed a falling trend in military coups over the years. A report in the BBC quoted research by Central Florida and Kentucky Universities to point that the number of successful coups fell from 26 in the 1960s to 18 in the 1970s to 22 in the 1980s to 16 in the 1990s to 8 in the 2000s to 8 in the 2010s, but between 2020 and 2022, there have already been 6 successful military coups. The corresponding numbers for failed attempts were 15 in the 1960s, 24 in the 1970s, 17 in the 1980s, 23 in the 1990s, 14 in the 2000s, 9 in the 2010s and 3 so far between 2020 and 2022.
Clearly the AU has been alarmed by the increasing frequency of military coups in the continent and have raised concerns about the rising number of suspensions of countries that have experienced these.
What explains the recent military coups in West Africa?
The reasons for the military coups that occurred recently in two of the three countries, Mali and Burkina Faso are related.
In Burkina Faso in West Africa, the military takeover in late January 2022 took place after months of unrest due to anti-Government protests demanding the resignation of President Kabore. A report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) detailed that after these demonstrations took a violent turn in Ouagadougou and Bobo Diolasso, the country’s two largest cities, a group of soldiers demanded the replacement of the chief of staff and director of the National Intelligence Agency besides the need for more troops to fight against jihadist groups that had wreaked terror in the region and for relief and care for wounded soldiers.
Within a couple of days, these actions by the soldiers turned into a putsch with their forcing President Kabore to sign a handwritten resignation letter and the formal takeover of power by a new junta called the Patrotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration (MPSR). These moves were similar to what transpired in Mali where armed forces staged a mutiny and captured power from president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in August 2020.
The unrest in Burkina Faso has been attributed as a direct fallout of the violent conflict organised by jihadist groups in Mali that began in 2012 that has since escalated and engulfed the Central Sahel region encompassing Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. A UNHCR briefing in January 2022 by its spokesperson mentioned that 2.5 million people had fled their homes following the conflict with 2.1 million of them displaced by late 2021. The total number of internally displaced people in Burkina Faso alone has risen to 1.5 million by the end of 2021. The conflict in Burkina Faso peaked when a series of massacres took place including in Solhan in June 2021 when 160 villagers were killed. The fact that pro-coup crowds gathered in Ouagadougou to support the junta’s putsch suggested that there was deep discontent with President Kabore’s regime as the army waded in to capture power. Military coups have also not been uncommon in Burkina Faso. The ICG report points out that military regimes have held power in 48 out of 61 years since the country’s independence.
FILE PHOTO: People gather in support of a coup that ousted President Roch Kabore, dissolved government, suspended the constitution and closed borders in Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou January 25, 2022. REUTERS/ Vincent Bado/File Photo
President Kabore’s regime sought to use the military to quell the jihadist groups in the country that included both local and regional militias, but with several instances of militant abuse and violent massacres happening, the jihadist threats only grew with some civilian support. After a lull in the violence following a ceasefire with two major jihadist groups, the violence returned in a brutal fashion with one outfit, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) in particular being responsible for it. With several people affected by the violence and security forces complaining about the lack of adequate Government support, the regime’s popularity waned and this soon led to the coup.
The Guinean coup d’état occurred on 5 September 2021 when forces led by military leader Mamady Doumbouya captured the President Alpha Conde after gunfire in the capital city, Conakry and announced the dissolution of the Government and the Constitution. In Guinea’s case, Mr. Conde, the country’s first democratically elected President had changed the Constitution by referendum to allow him to continue for a third term. This move had precipitated protests in the country which led to a Government crackdown on the protestors as well as an economic crisis. Yet again the military took advantage of a crisis to capture power and announced the dissolution of institutions and the Constitution.
How have regional and international actors reacted to these coups?
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced severe sanctions on Mali on 9 January, 2022, seeking to discourage further coups, but this did not deter the coup in Burkina Faso. Experts believe that the three new military regimes in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, will now seek to coordinate ties among themselves to resist pressure from the ECOWAS and other international actors. The suspensions by the AU were also to put pressure on the juntas to call for a return to democratic institutions and a constitutional order. ECOWAS would be the nodal authority that will strive to engage the new leaders in a dialogue process to seek a faster transition away from military rule.
The French led military intervention in Mali has sought to help the State defeat its jihadist threats but tensions have risen between the post-coup Government and the mission. With a purely military approach to tackle the jihadist threat not paying dividends in terms of halting the conflict, international actors would need to consider a course correction that focuses on reforms that could help governance in these countries in West Africa rather than just military strategies.
