Role of the leadership factor in the Rajasthan verdict Premium

Ashok Gehlot was the favoured choice of Congress supporters, while Vasundhara Raje had a limited appeal among BJP voters; PM Narendra Modi was a crucial factor in influencing the BJP vote

Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot is being greeted by people as he arrives to cast his vote for the Rajasthan assembly elections, at Sardarpura in Jodhpur. | Photo Credit: ANI

In Rajasthan, the Congress campaign revolved around Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and he was understood to be the party’s CM face. On the other hand, the BJP did not project any leader as its CM face and its campaign was centred on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Thus, it became a Modi vs. Gehlot contest in the State.

How crucial was the leadership factor in determining voter choice in Rajasthan? When asked who their preferred choice was for Chief Minister, Mr. Gehlot had the support of close to three of every 10 (28%) of the respondents — not a very impressive number for a sitting CM aiming to retain his post.

The support for Vasundhara Raje as the preferred Chief Minister was expressed by less than one-seventh (14%) of the respondents. The other BJP hopeful was mentioned by one of every ten of the respondents (Table 1).

Among Congress supporters, six of every 10 mentioned Mr. Gehlot, while less than one of every 10 took the name of Sachin Pilot. Among BJP voters, less than one-third (32%) referred to Ms. Raje as their preferred choice and a little over one-sixth (17%) referred to Gajendra Singh Shekhawat (Table 2). Mr. Gehlot thus was the favoured choice of Congress supporters while Ms. Raje had a limited appeal among BJP voters.

Close to four out of every 10 BJP and Congress voters highlighted the importance of the party when deciding on whom to vote for. A little less than one of every three Congress voters (28%) kept in mind the Chief Minister candidate when deciding whom to vote for. Among BJP supporters, close to one-thirds (31%) decided on their voting choice keeping Narendra Modi in mind. A mere 5% of the Congress voters referred to Rahul Gandhi as influencing their voting choice (Table 3). More Congress voters felt that the announcement of Sachin Pilot as the chief ministerial face of the party would not have made a difference on the vote choice (Table 4).

Thus, data from the Lokniti-CSDS survey clearly indicates that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was a crucial factor in influencing the BJP vote.

(Sandeep Shastri is Director-Academics, NITTE Education Trust, and the National Coordinator of the Lokniti Network)