The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its regional allies retained power in Assam, staving off the challenge of a 10-party grand alliance led by the Congress and a new regional front sired by the 2019 protests against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA).
The BJP’s development plank and sops for tea plantation workers, a deciding factor in at least 45 of Assam’s 126 Assembly constituencies, apparently overrode regionalism and perceived anti-CAA sentiments. Polarisation of voters with AIUDF president and MP Badruddin Ajmal having been projected as the “future of Assam” in the event of a Mahajot victory also played a role.
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Here are the latest updates from Assam.
Public Health Engineering Minister Rihon Daimary of the BPF loses Udalguri seat to UPPL's Gobinda Chandra Basumatary, a former extremist leader of NDFB by 4,851 votes
Results declared by 7.30 pm : BJP wins 8 seats in eastern and northern Assam, ally AGP wins 4, three of them in eastern Assam and one in western Assam. The Congress wins 3, also in eastern Assam; one of these Congress seats is Titabar, which former CM Tarun Gogoi had represented.
The ruling BJP-led alliance in Assam is leading in 77 of the state's 126 assembly constituencies and looks set to form the government for the second consecutive term, though the results are yet to be announced officially.
The opposition Grand Alliance spearheaded by the Congress is ahead in 45 constituencies.
According to the trends available till Sunday evening, the BJP is leading in 58 seats and its partners- Asom Gana Parishad is ahead in 11 and United People's Party, Liberal in eight assembly segments.
Congress candidates are leading in 28 seats, while those of its ally AIUDF in 14, Bodoland Peoples' Front (BPF) in two and the CPI(M) in one.
The performance of the newly-floated parties was disappointing with jailed Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi only leading in Sibsagar.
Election Commission director general Dharmendra Sharma says 72% of rounds been have completed in Assam and four results have been declared.
BJP opens account in Assam; Textiles Minister Ranjit Dutta wins Behali seat defeating independent Jayanta Borah by 29,839 votes
Who will be Assam CM?
It is certain that BJP will form the government in Assam. But who will be the chief minister? Incumbent Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal or health and finance minister Himanta Biswa Sarma?
Mr. Sarma is the BJP’s power house in the North East holding its alliances in several states together, and who managed to steer the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protests away from politically harming the BJP in the state. Senior party leaders have been saying that the party’s parliamentary board will be taking a view on the matter, meaning that a question mark is hanging on the issue. - Nistula Hebbar
TDP Chief congratulates CM for a 'resounding victory' in Assam elections
Andhra Pradesh Opposition leader N. Chandrababu Naidu congratulated BJP for a 'resounding victory' in Assam elections.
"Warm congratulations to @sarbanandsonwal Ji and @BJP4India led NDA for registering a resounding win in Assam Legislative Assembly elections, 2021." Mr. Naidu tweeted.
Rajnath Singh congratulates BJP for 'victory' in Assam
With trends pointing towards a BJP victory in Assam, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh took to twitter to congratulate party workers for winning the Assembly elections in Assam.
"The pro-people policies of Shri @narendramodi led Govt & the state Govt under @sarbanandsonwal have once again helped the BJP in winning assembly elections in Assam. Congratulations to PM Modi, CM Sonowal, Adhyaksh Shri @JPNadda & karyakartas on BJP’s impressive victory in Assam." Mr. Singh tweeted.
Impressive performance by AIUDF
All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is leading in 13 out of 14 seats it contested. The only constituency it is trailing is Baghbar, where it is in a "friendly contest" with its ally Congress.
Its alliance with Congress appears to have consolidated its votes, but not so much for the Congress.
The Congress, which contested in 94 seats is leading only in 29 seats. The BJP's campaign saying AIUDF's Badruddin Ajmal as the “future of Assam” if ‘Mahajot’ wins Mandate 2021 seems to have gone against the grand old party.
UPPL leading in 8 constituencies
Eight candidates of the United People’s Party Liberal are leading at the moment.
The United People’s Party Liberal or UPPL was formed in 2015 with its base in Kokrajhar. It's chief Pramod Baro is the incumbent chief of Bodoland Territorial Council.
The party promised to implement all the clauses of the BTR Accord signed in January 2020. These include providing surrendered members of the National Democratic Front of Boroland jobs in the armed forces and coming up with a proper policy for revenue allocation across the BTR.
Congress claims it will win in Assam despite trends favouring BJP
Despite trends till Sunday afternoon showing a comeback for the BJP in Assam, the Congress claimed that the Grand Alliance of the opposition parties will emerge victorious and form the government once the final results are out.
"I am still saying that the 'Mahajot' will form the government. Only 3-4 rounds are over at this moment, while counting will continue for more than 15 rounds in most of the seats," said All India Congress Committee National General Secretary Jitendra Singh, the in-charge of Assam Congress.
He appealed to the people to "wait for another 2-4 hours by when the tally is likely to reverse".
Lurinjyoti Gogoi. File
Lurinjyoti Gogoi is trailing from both Duliajan and Naharkatiya.
BJP's Taranga Gogoi is leading in Naharkatiya, while Dhrubajyoti Gogoi of Congress is leading in Duliajan.
Mr. Gogoi is the President of the newly formed Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP). The AJP was launched in September 2020 by members of the influential All Assam Students’ Union, of which Mr. Gogoi was the general secretary, and the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chhatra Parishad. The party was an outcome of the anti-CAA movement in Assam.
Himanta Biswa Sarma leads
With a whopping 79% votes polled in favour of him, Himanta Biswa Sarma is leading in Jalukbari. This will be his fifth straight win. Once a Congress person, Mr. Sarma switched to BJP accusing the grand old party of neglecting true workers.
Mr. Sarma's entry transformed the BJP and today he is the face of the saffron party in the northeast.
He was barred from campaigning by the Election Commission, taking cognisance of a complaint lodged by the Congress on March 30, alleging that he had threatened Hagrama Mohilary, chairman of Congress alliance partner Bodoland People’s Front, of sending him to jail by misusing the National Investigation Agency.
Ms. Neog meets Mr. Saikia again in Golaghat, with swap of party colours
BJP's Ajanta Neog is leading in the Golaghat constituency with 41,726 votes. Congress' Bitupan Saikia is trailing him with 36,440 votes.
Ms. Neog is seeking to retain eastern Assam’s Golaghat Assembly seat that she had won four times since 2001 as a Congress candidate. She joined the BJP, after Congress expelled her for alleged anti-party activities, in December, 2020 at a programme in the presence of the party’s Assam unit president Ranjeet Kumar Dass and Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
Ms. Neogi had tested positive for COVID-19 a week ahead of the first phase of polling in Assam on March 27. She has been infected for the second time in seven months.
Ms. Neog and Mr. Saikia are rivals for the second time in Golaghat, but with a swap of party colours. As the BJP candidate in 2016, Mr. Saikia lost the eastern Assam constituency to Ms. Neog, a Congress heavyweight, by 5,213 votes. A bitter Mr. Saikia joined the Congress, which readily offered him the seat.
Pijush Hazarika leading in Jagiroad
Urban Development Minister Pijush Hazarika of BJP is leading in Jagiroad constituency.
The junior Health Minister, who had allegedly threatened two journalists for reporting about a controversial campaign speech by his wife, was issued a notice to appear before the police in April and his call recordings were sent to forensic lab for examination.
Video | Crowds at counting centres cause worry
The counting of votes for the 822 Assembly seats spread across West Bengal , Tamil Nadu , Assam , Kerala and Puducherry is underway.
At a time when the country is facing a surge in COVID-19 the counting centres can also become superspreaders. The ECI had issued strict guidelines to be followed during the process of counting votes. 2,364 counting halls have been set up following the COVID-19 protocols.
Despite this, several counting centres remained crowded throughout the counting process. Watch here .
Trend in Bengali-dominated Barak valley
Congress-AIUDF combine is leading in 9 constituencies while BJP is leading in 6 out of a total of 15 seats in the Bengali-dominated Barak valley.
The BJP had won eight seats in 2016 from these southern Assam districts.
AGP leads in Bongaigaon over Congress
Food and Civil Supplies Minister Phani Bhushan Choudhury of AGP leading in Bongaigaon over Congress rival.
The AGP is betting on Mr. Choudhury to win the Bongaigaon seat for the eighth consecutive time.
Sum Ronghang trailing
Hill Areas Development Minister Sum Ronghang of Congress is trailing in Diphu behind his BJP rival.
He had quit the BJP and joined the Congress after he was denied a ticket by BJP. Mr. Ronghang, who held the portfolios of Hill Areas Development, besides Mines and Minerals, was one of 11 MLAs to whom the BJP denied a ticket.
BJP will form govt. in Assam: Sonowal
Elated over the initial trends of Assam poll results, which showed that the BJP has an edge over its rivals, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal on Sunday exuded confidence that the saffron party-led alliance will retain power in the state.
"People have blessed us. We can say for sure that the BJP will form government in Assam. We are coming back to power with our partners AGP and UPPL," Sonowal told reporters.
- PTI
Trends at 12.30 p.m.
Trends at 12.30 p.m.
Trends at 12.30 p.m.
The trends at 12:30 p.m. for 119 out of 126 seats is as follows:
BJP+ leading in 77 seats,
Congress+ in 41, and
Independents in 1 (Akhil Gogoi of Raijor Dal)
Track the constituency-wise trends here .
Two party presidents trailing
State Congress chief Ripun Bora is behind Utpal Borah of BJP in Gohpur and Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) president Lurinjyoti Gogoi is trailing in both Duliajan and Naharkatiya constituencies.
The AJP was launched in September 2020 by members of the influential All Assam Students’ Union, of which Mr. Gogoi was the general secretary, and the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chhatra Parishad. The party was an outcome of the anti-CAA movement in Assam.
Muslim candidates of BJP leading
Deputy Speaker Aminul Haque Laskar, BJP’s only Muslim MLA, is leading in Sonai constituency over AIUDF rival.
Kadiruzzaman Zinnah in Laharighat is leading over his Congress rival.
Abu Bakar Siddique in Bilasipara West over AIUDF rival.
Ministers Pramila Rani Brahma and Chandra Brahma trailing
BPF leaders and Ministers Pramila Rani Brahma and Chandra Brahma trailing from Kokrajhar East and Sidli constituencies to UPPL's Lawrense Islary and Joyanta Basumatary respectively.
Pramila Rani Brahma is Assam's Social Welfare Minister. She is seeking a re-election from the same constituency of Kokrajhar East.
Assam Tourism Minsiter Chandan Brahma, too, is seeking a re-election.
Assembly Speaker Hitendra Nath Goswami of the BJP is trailing Congress nominee Rana Goswami in Jorhat.
Mahajot leading in 26 constituencies
The ruling BJP-led NDA is leading in 61 seats, while the Grand Alliance spearheaded by the Congress is ahead in 26 places, as per trends on the EC website.
BJP candidates are leading in 44 seats, while those of its ally AGP in 11.
The Congress has established initial leads in 18 places and AIUDF in six.
Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and Health Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma are leading by 18,923 and 85,935 votes from Majuli and Jalukbari seats respectively.
- PTI
Congress' Debabrata Saika, Rakibul Hussain trailing
Congress Legislative Party chief and his deputy Debabrata Saikia and Rakibul Hussain both are trailing from Nazira and Samaguri.
Mr. Saikia has won the Nazira constituency in 2011 and 2016. His father Hiteshwar Saikia won from the constituency 6 times and his mother Hemoprobha Saikia has won twice.
AGP chief leading
AGP chief and Agriculture Minister Atul Bora is leading in Bokakhat.
Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is leading in six constituencies so far.
Akhil Gogoi leading from Sibsagar
Raijor Dal chief and jailed rights activist Akhil Gogoi is leading from Sibsagar with 5,702 votes or over 58% of the votes counted so far.
He contested the election in absentia.
With movable property worth ₹70,497, Mr. Gogoi was the poorest of a quartet of party presidents whose Assembly constituencies in eastern Assam went to the polls in the first phase on March 27.
Counting trends as on 10.20 a.m. on May 1, 2021.
Track the constituency-wise counting results here .
Chief Minister leading in Majuli
Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal is leading in Majuli constituency with over 66% of the votes counted so far.
Finance and Health Minister of Assam Himanta Biswa Sarma is also leading. He is the face of the BJP in the northeast and seeks to win Jalukbari for the fifth straight term.
BJP leading in 11 seats
Counting agents wearing PPE kits seen inside a counting room in Guwahati on 2 May, 2021.
Counting agents wearing PPE kits seen inside a counting room in Guwahati on 2 May, 2021.
The BJP is leading in 11 seats while its allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and UPPL are leading in 4 and 2 seats, respectively.
The Congress is leading in 4 constituencies while its Mahajot ally Bodoland People's Front is leading in 2.
BJP and allies confident of retaining power, Congress of dislodging the alliance
Assam had a voters’ turnout of 82.04%, a tad less than the 84.72% recorded in 2016.
The BJP and its allies – Asom Gana Parishad, United People’s Party Liberal and Rabha Joutha Mancha – is confident of retaining power with more than 80 seats. If they do, it will be the first instance of a non-Congress party to secure a second successive term in Assam.
The Congress had ruled for three straight terms from 2001 to 2016 under former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi.
The Congress too is confident of dislodging the BJP-led alliance by winning at least 75 seats. Its allies in the Mahajot include the All India United Democratic Front, Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) and and Rashtriya Janata Dal.
Counting begins amid "airtight" security
The counting of votes for 126 Assembly constituencies in Assam elections began at 8 a.m. May 2 across 331 halls amid “airtight” security and adherence to COVID-19 guidelines.
Three alliances had contested the three-phase elections held on March 27, April 1 and April 6. But the contest is expected to be between the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mitrajot (group of friends) and the 10-party Mahajot or grand alliance headed by Congress while the regional front of Assam Jatiya Parishad and jailed activist Akhil Gogoi’s Raijor Dal is expected to spring a surprise in a few seats.
Analysis | Assam Assembly election can decide future of several players
The outcome of the poll could determine the direction of the debate around the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA). While there is a view elsewhere that both the CAA and the Supreme Court-mandated exercise of updating the NRC are exclusionary processes, in Assam there is considerable support for the NRC and opposition to the CAA.
That explains why the Congress claims credit for piloting the NRC project while staunchly opposing the CAA since it discriminates on the basis of religion.
Data | Voter turnout lower in 90% of seats compared to 2016
Compared to the 2016 Assembly election, turnout decreased in 90% of the 530 seats in the four States where voting for the 2021 State polls took place on April 6.
Nearly 86% of seats in Tamil Nadu, 95% in Kerala, 90% in Assam, and all the seats in Puducherry recorded lower turnout than in 2016. Despite the fall in numbers, 80%-plus voter turnout was recorded in more than 60% of the seats in Assam and Puducherry.
In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, on the other hand, only 17% and 6% of the seats recorded turnouts more than 80%. In Tamil Nadu, in 6% of the seats, mostly in urban areas, the turnout was less than 60%.
Take a look at the maps depicting the constituency-wise turnout in Assam in 2021.
Counting staff take precautions against COVID-19
