Candidates and their party bosses were on tenterhooks on the eve of the election result day. With several exit polls predicting a hung Assembly, the outcome, which will be declared on Tuesday, will be a watershed moment for all three major parties — the Congress, the BJP and the JD(S).
- First one was in 1983, when Ramakrishna Hegde became CM with BJP support
- Second was in 2004 when Congress and JD(S) formed alliance government. Next, JD(S) broke away from the Congress and formed a government with BJP in 2006, which also split at the end of 20 months
In case the Congress makes a comeback, the 133-year-old party will break the jinx of no political party retaining power in the State since 1985, when the erstwhile Janata Party formed the government under Ramakrishna Hegde for a second consecutive term. If the party wins with a clear majority, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, an astute political leader, who is only the second Chief Minister to complete five years in office since 1972, is most likely to continue in his post.
A victory would boost the sagging morale of the Congress, which has been witnessing poll defeats in State after State since 2014. A defeat will certainly make stronger its claim for the leadership of a much talked pan-India anti-BJP alliance ahead of the 2019 general election.
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The BJP, which has considered Karnataka as the gateway to the South, emerged as the major challenger to the Congress. A victory for the BJP will re-establish the so-called charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and well-crafted strategy of party president Amit Shah to bring the party to power, despite the ‘tainted’ tag of its Chief Minister candidate and the Reddy brothers.
In case the BJP bags a simple majority (112 seats), the party’s B.S. Yeddyurappa is bound to become Chief Minister.
In the event of a fractured mandate as predicted by several pollsters, the JD(S) led by former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda would play the role of kingmaker. The polls will decide the future of Mr. Siddaramaiah, Mr. Yeddyurappa and H.D. Kumaraswamy in significant ways.
Dark horse
Mr. Siddaramaiah, who broke ties with the JD(S) 12 years ago, will not be the Chief Ministerial candidate in the event of a hung Assembly and the Congress-JD(S) form an alliance. In that scenario, a dark horse will emerge as a possible alternative. The JD(S) may not favour a leader from any of the numerically dominant communities. It might opt for a leader who is seen as pliant, like in 2004 when N. Dharam Singh was made Chief Minister.
Meanwhile, Mr. Kumaraswamy’s trip to Singapore hours after polling set off speculation of post-poll negotiations. If the JD(S) crosses the 50 mark, Mr. Kumaraswamy will surely stake his claim for the post of CM, whether it is the Congress or the BJP seeking his party’s support.
Repolling in three booths in Karnataka — two in Kushtagi, Ballari, and one in Hebbal, Bengaluru, — went off peacefully on Monday.
