One of the variables that help sustain interest in sport is uncertainty. It’s difficult to conjure competition that is entirely unpredictable; there are bound to be favourites. But spectator interest is piqued the most when things are uncertain — when fans can hold their breath and revel in the possibility of an upset.
Since 2014, Golden State Warriors has dominated the NBA, reaching four consecutive finals, losing just once, against the LeBron James-inspired Cleveland Cavaliers in 2016. Three titles later, the Warriors, headlined by former MVPs Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant and All-NBA perennials Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, have lost little of their edge. All-Star centre DeMarcus Cousins joined the fold on a pittance of a salary, because of an Achilles heel injury sustained last year, and, following recovery, has become a key contributor. He has added a new dimension to the attack, that of a bully. Thanks to this All-Star starting lineup, with veteran help off the bench, the Warriors had the best record in the Western Conference: 57-25.
This iteration of the Warriors squad hasn’t merely added talent. It has morphed into an even more expansive and tactically versatile unit. It still prefers off-ball movement, screen-setting, misdirection and freeing sharpshooters Curry and Thompson — a method that has yielded three championships.
But Durant has developed a strong mid-range game, and Cousins’ play at centre offers a deterrence to the ‘switching’ strategy opponents adopt to limit Warriors’ playmaking. Last year, Houston Rockets managed to stretch the Western Conference final to seven games by ‘switching’ seamlessly — players alternating on defence, moving from their primary man-marking assignments to others, keeping Warriors’ shooters off-balance and stopping them gaining that extra second to set their feet.
Cousins’ presence allows for a new outlet when opponents switch, with his ability to dominate in the paint and bully smaller opponents at the post. Besides, the Warriors have honed other plays in their offensive arsenal — isolations featuring Durant to overpower opponents and the pick-and-roll. On defence, when it comes to the clutch, they go into an airtight, ‘lets play on a string’ mode. Quite simply, the Warriors are overwhelming favourites.
But there are a new set of contenders who could give the Warriors a run for their money, at least on paper. Chief among them is the team with the best record in 2018-19 — Milwaukee Bucks (60-22).
For the Bucks, the buck starts and stops at the giant limbs of the Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo. His ability to dexterously muscle into the lane and either score at the rim or draw defenders and pass to open shooters makes him a potent weapon. Coach Mike Budenholzer has a quiver full of new tactics. He has empowered centre Brook Lopez to become a perimeter bomber and employed high-volume, high-accuracy shooters to complement Antetokounmpo.
Antetokounmpo has also been a terror on defence, taking on all five positions if need be, disrupting passing lanes with his sheer reach, blocking shots at the rim, and stealing the ball regularly. He has been aided by his teammates’ discipline in limiting their fouling (a bane last season). With the best defence in the league, the Bucks, theoretically, match up well against the Warriors.
Toronto Raptors, second in the Eastern Conference, will also fancy its chances. Loaded with two-way wings, guards and forwards, and a deep bench, the squad is as versatile as it gets. Wings Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, during their time with San Antonio Spurs, created problems for Curry, Thompson and even Durant. Bulldog point guard Kyle Lowry and versatile centre Marc Gasol can step up a level if required. The Raptors’ most consistent performer this season has been young forward Pascal Siakam, who has been stellar on defence, in transition offence and as a secondary scoring option. Coach Nick Nurse is only in his first year at the helm of a team with a history of under-performance in the playoffs, but Leonard, Siakam & co. could help them over the hump.
Philadelphia 76ers has the second-best starting lineup, after the Warriors. The side is a nightmare to come up against: 6’10’’ point guard/forward Ben Simmons did not quite improve on his promising rookie campaign, but continues a fruitful partnership with centre Joel Embiid, who has been scary when healthy on both ends of the floor. Wings Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris are efficient scorers. Butler plays with a chip on his shoulder, defending wings and guards, whereas Harris is a pure sharpshooter. Shooting guard JJ Redick completes a well-rounded lineup. There is no doubt that coach Brett Brown has built a powerful unit; whether it can stand firm under pressure isn’t known yet.
The other team that could challenge the Warriors? Houston Rockets, of course. Guard James Harden has established himself as the league’s best player on offence, scoring at historically high levels. He owns the most unguardable shot in the NBA — the step-back three. Along with Chris Paul, he troubled the Warriors last year, and although the Rockets lost a couple of key pieces early this season, they have regrouped around Harden’s amazing MVP-worthy campaign.
Of the other relatively talented teams, the Celtics (at a lower level compared to last year), the Nuggets (inexperience in the post-season), the Blazers (hurt by injuries), the Thunder (inconsistency) and the Spurs (diminished talent) suffer from clear disadvantages. As things stand, the Warriors look set for a three-peat. But the freakish talents of Antetokounmpo, Harden, Leonard and Embiid give one pause. There could yet be a surprise this NBA season.
