World football’s defining rivalry over the last decade has involved Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. It has polarised fans, even players, and the debate over who is greater shows no signs of ending.
Since 2009-10, they’ve gone head to head twice every league season. Who has been the superior player over these 16 matches? We attempt to answer this question with the help of the games’ underlying stats.
Impact in wins
From an individual standpoint, two of the most significant factors in shaping victory are: (1) Producing a decisive moment when the game is in the balance; and (2) Dominating a match, ‘taking it by the scruff’ or snuffing the opposition out.
Given where Messi and Ronaldo play and the responsibility they bear, goals and assists are strong measures of (1) and (2).
On factor (1), things are even. Ronaldo has two match-winning goals (both at Camp Nou; 2012 and 2016) to Messi’s two match-winning goals (both at the Bernabeu; 2014 and 2017).
Messi comfortably takes the honours in factor (2). He laid out two assists in a 5-0 thrashing at Camp Nou in 2010, scored three and assisted one in a 4-3 win and scored twice in a 3-2 win (both at the Bernabeu; 2014 and 2017).
The only time Ronaldo was involved in more than one goal in a Liga Clasico, his two strikes were cancelled out by Messi’s two in a 2012 draw.
The head-to-head joust
Both players are talismanic figures, and their sides look to their hero to outperform the opposition’s. Who has the superior overall numbers?
The metrics for consideration, apart from goals and assists, were: shots per game (which correlates with goals in the long run), key passes per game (a measure of chance creation), the times they pulled off successful dribbles (which helps break a defensive line) or were dispossessed, and pass % (how they circulated the ball).
The full dataset may be viewed at http://bit.ly/LeovsCristiano. Messi has a clear lead in 6 of the 7 metrics (shots per game, the exception) over the course of 16 games (see overall table).
Considering each match individually and matching their numbers up, Messi leads the head-to-head 11-2; the other three times, they were tied. Indeed, Messi was better on at least 4 of these 7 parameters 8 times! Ronaldo managed that twice.
Clasicos with Messi > Ronaldo
Clasicos with Ronaldo > Messi
Lifting for the big game
While Messi has dominated the head-to-head, he has, for the majority of the 16 Clasicos, played in the stronger team — it’s a team, moreover, that tends to have a lot of the ball and give it to him. This influences the numbers: the more you’re in control of the ball, the more actions you can generate.
To better isolate the quality of an individual performance — insofar as it’s possible in a fluid, team game — these numbers can be compared against the player’s baseline: his average performance that season. This offers a sense of whether he lifted his level.
Clasicos Messi out-performed his season average
Clasicos Ronaldo out-performed his season average
Messi has Ronaldo’s measure in this facet as well: he has outperformed his season average on at least 3 parameters in 12 of 16 matches, while Ronaldo has done it in just 3 of 16. The Argentine No. 10 has, moreover, beaten his season average on 5 and 6 parameters, something Ronaldo has never managed; indeed, the Portuguese star even underperformed on every parameter once.
Last Word
There’s no disputing who the better player in Liga Clasicos is. Messi’s numbers are superior however you dice them. Ronaldo fans can, however, take some solace from the fact that in two of Real Madrid’s four wins, their icon has proved the difference.
(Source: whoscored)
