For many, the crawl in Antigua – where M.S. Dhoni recorded the slowest ODI half-century by an Indian, in a failed chase – was clinching proof that his best was behind him. For captain Virat Kohli, it was “just one game, one knock”; he was, moreover, critical of the rush to judgment – “I think we get too impatient,” he said.
We investigate the matter in an innings-by-innings breakdown of Dhoni’s performances in chases to see what the numbers say.
Taking responsibility
To begin with, we looked at each chase Dhoni played in and determined the equation when he came to the crease – the runs required and the balls remaining. What proportion of the runs did Dhoni make?
Table 1 shows a break-up of these percentages and whether India won that match or not.
| % of runs scored | Lost | Tied | Won | Grand Total |
| >60 | 7 | 7 | ||
| 45-60 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 |
| 30-45 | 5 | 28 | 33 | |
| 15-30 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 29 |
| Less than 15 | 34 | 8 | 42 | |
| Grand Total | 60 | 2 | 63 | 125 |
Findings
India won every game in which Dhoni scored more than 60% of the runs required
It won a majority of the games in which he scored at least 30% of the runs
It lost a bulk of the games where he scored less than 30%.
It is clear that over his long career, Dhoni’s performances have largely determined how India chased targets – the more he scored, the more likely it was for India to win
Managing the equation
Table 2 adds another variable to the equation, the asking rate when he came to the crease. At what rate did Dhoni score in chases?
| % of required runs | Lesser than Asking Rate | More than Asking Rate | Grand Total |
| Less than 15 | 37 | 5 | 42 |
| 15-30 | 22 | 7 | 29 |
| 30-45 | 16 | 17 | 33 |
| 45-60 | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| >60 | 7 | 7 | |
| Grand Total | 79 | 46 | 125 |
Findings
Dhoni has surpassed the required run rate when he has done the bulk of the chasing – every time when he has made 60% of the runs, and 10 of 14 times when he has made 45-59%
At 30-45%, it’s nearly split, and when he has scored a smaller proportion of the runs required, he has seldom outstripped the asking rate
These numbers seem to corroborate Dhoni’s tendency of starting steadily, even slowly, picking up pace as the innings progresses and finishing in a flurry
Consistency over time
The question to be answered now is how well this unique ability of Dhoni – to pace his chases and to commandeer India to victory – has held over time
Table 3 looks at the equation that seeks to answer this question:
| Year | #Innings | % Asking Rate | % Won |
| 2004 | 1 | 100 | |
| 2005 | 11 | 63.6 | 63.6 |
| 2006 | 13 | 61.5 | 53.8 |
| 2007 | 16 | 31.3 | 50 |
| 2008 | 13 | 46.2 | 61.5 |
| 2009 | 10 | 30 | 40 |
| 2010 | 9 | 33.3 | 66.7 |
| 2011 | 10 | 40 | 70 |
| 2012 | 8 | 25 | 42.9 |
| 2013 | 11 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| 2014 | 6 | ||
| 2015 | 7 | 14.3 | 28.6 |
| 2016 | 6 | 16.7 | 50 |
| 2017 | 4 | 25 |
Findings
In his initial years, from 2005 to 2011, Dhoni’s runs were scored at a rate more than the asking rate when he came to the crease in at least 30% of the games he played.
After a lean period in 2012, he underwent a renaissance in 2013, scoring above the asking rate in 46% of the chases, before hitting a trough since then.
Interestingly, since 2016, India has chased down more than a few targets, despite Dhoni’s relatively slower strike-rate at the crease.
This indicates that India is not any longer as dependent as it was on Dhoni to see it through in as before (as numbers from 2005 to 2011 suggest).
Last word
The numbers don't lie. Dhoni has remained for long a clinical for India as a finisher, but since 2012 (barring an exceptional 2013), his powers have diminished. This is reflected in the ratio of runs he has scored while chasing and in the strike-rates as well in those years.
But as 2013 showed, he is quite capable of turning the corner even if the Indian team is not wholly dependent on him in chases as it was between 2005 and 2015.
WHAT THE PROS SAY
He is striking the ball beautifully. You don’t need to tell him anything about how to play a situation, how to build an innings
VIRAT KOHLI
JULY 2017
Leaving it till the final over was an audacious strategy that only Dhoni could pull off, but he might want to change gears and step on the accelerator a little earlier
AKASH CHOPRA
ESPNCRICINFO
JULY 2017
From the finishing point of view I will reiterate we have got a bit blasé because it was happening so often. He is still the most destructive closer that the game has seen
STEPHEN FLEMING
APRIL 2017
At his best, M.S. Dhoni is invaluable. That kind of knowledge and ability, under pressure, is not easy to find. The question (sic) obviously [is] that you need to earn your place in the team with performances
RAHUL DRAVID
JANUARY 2017
WHAT HE SAYS
Because I was captain, I always felt I should take that added responsibility of playing lower down. I would’ve preferred batting at four and playing more overs, [but] it’s difficult for newcomers to bat at six or seven
JANUARY 2017
It [finishing] is one of the most difficult things in cricket
OCTOBER 2016
When there’s a big-hitting batsman, if he gets out, you hear, ‘What was the need of that shot?’ If that same shot goes for six, everyone applauds.
You have to give [the finishers] the benefit of doubt. And yes, it is my responsibility [to finish games], it’s my job and I’ll always take it
Sometimes people complain that I haven’t hit a helicopter shot. But if it’s a bouncer, how will anyone hit a helicopter shot?
I find it a bit difficult to go in and play the big shot [immediately]. I’ll [need] to maybe [have] a … shift in my batting and adapt [so] I can go in and play a big shot
JANUARY 2016
With the new rule changes, with that extra fielder outside [five instead of four on the boundary], batters who come after the 40th over [find it difficult] to play the big shot
More than the short deliveries, it’s the length deliveries that are more difficult to hit because with the reverse swing, the bowlers can actually cramp you.
When you bat down the order you have to take the blame because when you finish many games, people always remember the ones you have not finished ... this [vs. South Africa, Kanpur] and one I remember is ... Sri Lanka at Rajkot [2007]
OCTOBER 2015
The whole idea was for me to go up and play more freely. The last four-five years, I have batted at 6, and there is always some kind of pressure so I have not been able to bat freely
JUNE 2015
With additional inputs from Vignesh Radhakrishnan and Manisha Darshanam
