Amid receding floodwaters and a raging pandemic , Bihar is going to polls in the coming weeks — the first Indian State to do so since the COVID-19 outbreak started this year. Routine election activities like canvassing and rallies are getting complicated, with the Election Commission issuing strict but confusing guidelines that remain vastly overlooked across the length and breadth of the State. However, after our single round of fieldwork in the State, it can be said that the political situation in Bihar is less confusing after all, as there seems to be a pattern to the electoral preferences of voters.
Old formula
Our field study across seven sub-regions of the State revealed that the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had an upper hand. The NDA this time has gone back to its formula of ‘BJP plus JD(U)’ that won two successive Assembly elections, before both the parties parted ways in 2013, only to come together again in 2017. The Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) of former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi has also rejoined the NDA. The NDA’s principal opponent, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan, or the ‘Grand Alliance’, comprises the Congress and three Left parties — the CPI, the CPI(M) and the CPI(ML). Based on field insights, it could be inferred that the Nitish Kumar-led NDA seems likely to emerge victorious once again, while the Mahagathbandhan may find it difficult to strike a chord beyond their core base of Muslims and Yadavs despite having the opportunity to cash in on prevailing social, epidemic, economic and flood-related crises.
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The principal reason for this is the complex socio-political fabric of Bihar. While the State BJP has predominantly been a ‘Baniya’ party, an upper caste comprising less than 1/5th of Bihar’s population, the RJD has commanded the support of a majority of Yadavs and Muslims, who form around 1/3rd of the State’s population. With both these parties and their mass-bases locked in an unequal contest, the key to power lies with the remaining sections — the non-Yadav OBCs (other backward classes) like Kurmis and Koeris, the EBCs (extremely backward classes) like Nishads, Nai-Kahars and Mandals, and the Mahadalits like Paswans, Musahars and Chamars. Barring the Paswans, who have mostly remained committed to Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), the remaining social sections have stood firmly by Mr. Kumar, thus explaining his indispensability in Bihar’s politics.
This time too, little seems to have changed. Despite the fact that the sheen of Mr. Kumar’s image as the ‘Vikas Purush’ (development man) has petered out, the EBCs, the non-Yadav OBCs and Mahadalit voters we interacted with across the State unequivocally expressed that they will continue supporting him as ‘there is no better alternative’. Most of them accepted that they voted for the JD(U)-RJD-led Mahagathbandhan in 2015 and the NDA in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, showing the ‘transferability’ of Mr. Kumar’s diverse social base. It is this transferability that could change the fortunes of parties like the BJP or the RJD, which continue to remain locked in the plateaus of their respective social bases.
Though it may seem counter-intuitive, the only other political force that commands a relatively diverse support base in Bihar are the Left parties. However, their influence is limited to small pockets, not covering more than 50 seats in total. Because of the history of land struggles and militant agitations, the Left in Bihar developed a social base among the Mahadalits, the EBC-OBCs, Muslims, and even the poor from upper castes. This explains RJD’s new-found love for the Left.
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Contrary to the prevailing argument that the deepening of identity politics has led to fragmentation of social bases of mainstream parties and the emergence of various caste leaders who could sway their support base, Bihar presents a different case. The new entrants, especially the Nishad-based Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) of Mukesh Sahani, the Kushwaha-based Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) of Upendra Kushwaha, and the Mahadalit-based HAM, have failed to make their mark. Even then, Mr. Kumar was more than willing to bring Mr. Manjhi back into the party fold, while Mr. Kushwaha and Mr. Sahani were shunned. What explains this differential treatment?
Symbolic vs. real appeal
The answer lies in the directionality of alliances chosen by the new caste leaders. The ground reality is that the people of a caste have a pre-existing political inclination wherein they want a symbolic leader to accentuate their importance. As long as the leader pitches for more power in the same direction as desired by the community, she or he is celebrated. However, any move in the opposite direction is shunned, as it is considered a threat to the core social base. Hence, attempts by Upendra Kushwaha to break the old Kurmi-Kushwaha core, part of Mr. Kumar’s base, led to Mr. Kushwaha’s isolation by community members. Similarly, Mr. Sahani, despite being praised, has been rejected in the past by community voters for siding with the RJD. In our field-study, Nishads in Darbhanga (Bahadurpur), Samastipur (Morwa), Madhubani (Harlakhi), Begusarai (Bachhwara) declared Mr. Kumar as their leader, while stating that though Mr. Sahani did good, he should have stayed with Mr. Kumar. So, while a ‘pressure group’ model, as long as it increases the community’s bargaining power, is good, an attack on traditional support that could jeopardise patronage and benefits is bad. Hence, breaking from a pre-existing strong anchor may not be feasible.
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Meanwhile, there seems to be a discernible change in the attitude of Muslim voters. While a majority of them remain with the RJD, the appeal of Mr. Kumar has disappeared profoundly post the unrest following the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Interestingly, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) leader, Asaduddin Owaisi, has emerged as a force with strong electoral viability in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region. During the 2015 election, we had found significant Muslim anger towards Mr. Owaisi for being a vote-spoiler by dividing the community’s vote, which meant an advantage for the BJP. However, post the Centre’s CAA move, Mr. Owaisi seems to be an absolute gainer and Mr. Kumar the loser of the minority community’s votes in Bihar.
In conclusion, armed with a wide social base of upper castes, the non-Yadav OBCs and a majority of Dalits, the NDA seems to have a decisive edge over the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, which is struggling to find an appeal beyond its core support base of Muslims and Yadavs.
Rajan Pandey teaches political science at Royal Global University, Guwahati. Sajjan Kumar is a political analyst. They are associated with People’s Pulse.
