A close look at the performance of the AIADMK, the principal Opposition party in Tamil Nadu, along with its ally, DMDK, in select 14 constituencies during the recent Lok Sabha election reveals that the Dravidian major, whose vote share was around 40% and more 10 years ago, is now a pale shadow of its original strength, if the current vote share is any indication.
Only in four out of these 14 constituencies (chosen on the basis of the AIADMK-led front’s performance in the 2009 election), could the Dravidian major exceed the 30 per cent mark in vote share. Villupuram, Karur, Salem and Tiruppur were the seats where the party has been able to hold on to its original strength to a substantial extent, even though here too, it suffered a drop in its vote share. In Erode, the party fell short of the 30 per cent mark just marginally.
While the signs of erosion were evident even in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, this time around, the fall has become steeper. The vote share Tiruvallur, Chennai South, Tiruchi and Theni, where the party used to be a strong presence, has now reduced by one-half or one-third of what it was about a decade ago.
In fact, in Chennai South and Theni, where the party has won quite a few times, its candidates forfeited their deposits this time. Despite managing to win, in 2021, all the Assembly seats falling under the Coimbatore constituency, the AIADMK-led front, this general election, came third this time in the Coimbatore constituency fight. In Tenkasi, Puthiya Tamilagam founder K. Krishnasamy, who contested in 2019 and 2024 under the AIADMK’s symbol of two leaves, got 10 percentage points less this time.
The question remains as to which party has cut into the votes of the AIADMK in all these 14 seats. The BJP and its allies have only taken away a portion of the Dravidian major’s vote base. However, there are other claimants too. The Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) may be getting a portion of the AIADMK’s votes. This can be well illustrated in Tiruchi, where the Dravidian major won in 2009 and 2014. Ten years ago, the party got a vote share of 46.37%. Now, it secured 21.7% and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), a breakaway group of the AIADMK and now an ally of the BJP, netted 9.54%. The NTK’s vote share was 10.18%
Even though it can be argued that the Dravidian major’s performance in 2024 was better than that of its ally, DMDK, (which got about 15% of votes polled last time), the aggregate of vote shares of the AIADMK and the AMMK this time was short by about 15%, compared to the 2014 showing.
A critical analysis of the AIADMK’s performance would also underscore the point that the party has a long way to go, before it recaptures the vote share of 40%.
