Just as a second wave of COVID-19 infection is sweeping across many States, there are indications about a rise in cases in Kerala too, stoking fears that the State might scale yet another peak soon after the Assembly polls.
The State’s test positivity rate which had been brought down to less than 3% over the past two months has been climbing again and had touched 4.69% on Sunday.
Not surprising, as people across the State are participating actively in the poll campaigns, mass rallies and gatherings, paying little heed to physical distancing or mask protocols.
“The virus is very much around and though the COVID-19 vaccine has arrived, the current pace or levels of vaccination amongst the vulnerable groups are not adequate to outpace the virus. Letting down the guard at this point in the pandemic would take the State back to a situation when we might again have to scramble to ensure hospital beds and oxygen for all,” says Rakhal Gaitonde, professor, SCTIMST.
Still vulnerable
The Statewide serosurvey conducted by Kerala had revealed that a chunk of the population remains vulnerable to the virus.
What could change the transmission dynamics of second wave in India is the fact that a significant percentage of the virus samples have been mutant variants of concern.
A chunk of the samples from Punjab belonged to the mutant B.1.1.7 lineage first detected in the U.K. In Kerala, of the 2,032 samples genomically sequenced from 14 districts, the N440K variant that is associated with immune escape, had been found in 123 samples from 11 districts. One has no idea about the extent of the spread of this variant in the State yet.
Shift in burden
Now that the State has begun vaccinating its vulnerable population against COVID-19 and is gearing up to vaccinate all above 45 years, it is possible that the burden of the infection this time around would shift to the younger age group, those in the 18-45 age group, who are not vaccinated.
These are working adults and while most of them may not be sick enough to be hospitalised or could have mild symptoms that go unnoticed, they could still spread the infection.
“We do not know if our system is sensitive enough to pick up disease in the younger age groups. Disease in the older group is recognised and acted upon fast because we need to prevent deaths. In the younger age group, the disease might not be picked up at all. Already, there are reports from districts that the mobile PCR labs which were set up to boost RT-PCR testing are unable to meet their targets because people are unwilling to be tested,” T. S. Anish, Additional Professor of Community Medicine, Thiruvananthapuram Medical College, says.
