The resurgence of COVID-19 is expected to continue in the coming days with a study predicting the number of cases to reach 12.9 lakh and deaths, 13,600, by May 10 in Karnataka.
Jeevan Raksha, a public-private partnership initiative by Proxima, a management consulting firm, with technical support and guidance of Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), has, in it is ‘COVID-19: Wave 2: Trend analysis and Projection’ said that the total cases in Karnataka, which stood at 11,09,650 on April 14, will reach 12,90,000 on May 10.
Similarly, the number of persons dying by COVID-19 in the State is projected to reach 13,600 on May 10 from the 13,112, who had died till April 14. Jeevan Raksha’s convenor Mysore Sanjeev said the projections were based on its forecasting module Proxima Pandemic Management System (PPMS), which had also carried out similar projections between August 2020 and January 2021.
Peak by May
It may be mentioned here that the COVID-19 Technical Advisory Committee members had also opined that the second wave was expected to peak by May first week before dipping by the end of the month.
“In the last 30 days, the four southern States – Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala – cumulatively added 4,01,690 COVID-19 cases and 1,754 deaths of which Karnataka alone contributed 37% of the cases and 40% of the deaths. This clearly indicates that there is a sharp deterioration in COVID-19 management in Karnataka when compared with its neighbouring states despite an increase in testing,” Mr Sanjeev said.
In Bengaluru
Also, Bengaluru has contributed 68% and 61% of the total incremental increase in State’s cases and deaths between March 16 and April 14. “The qualitative aspect of testing is a major issue in Bengaluru. Large number of tests are being conducted for transactional and administrative purposes with limited relevance from COVID-19 containment point of view,” he said.
Jeevan Raksha pointed out that the growth pattern of COVID-19 cases in the country indicated that the numbers will continue to surge and reach 1,73,00,000 by May 10 against the 1,42,95,430 reported by April 14 night. The number of deaths are also predicted to cross 1,90,000 by May 10 with Maharashtra, Gujarat and Punjab, besides Delhi likely to witness a high number of deaths.
