The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has retained its outlook of an ‘above normal’ monsoon this year. In April, the agency had forecast June-September rainfall to be 6% above the normal of 87 cm. India’s north-eastern States are expected to receive deficient rains. The monsoon ‘core zone,’ which encompasses most of central India and critical for the kharif crop, and southern India are expected to see ‘above normal’ rainfall, Mrutunjay Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD, said on Monday.
The conditions for the onset of monsoon over Kerala were “favourable” and likely in the next five days. Cyclone Remal, which made landfall in Bangladesh on Monday, had given a push to the eastern branch of the approaching monsoon system. The cyclone has nudged it closer to the Indian mainland though it was yet uncertain if the monsoon would begin in eastern India before Kerala — an extremely unusual, but not unprecedented phenomenon, said Mr. Mohapatra.
Earlier this month, the IMD had forecast the onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 31, within an error window of four days.
El Niño conditions
As in April, India’s strong monsoon rainfall is predicated on El Niño conditions withering away to ‘neutral’ conditions and the onset of La Niña conditions during the later part of the monsoon season. “At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD] conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from many global climate models indicate positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.,” said a statement from the IMD.
El Nino, La Nina and IOD conditions refer to temperatures in the Central Pacific, and the eastern and western halves of the Indian Ocean respectively. La Nina conditions coupled with a favourable IOD spell good rains for India.
