Even as investigators trace the roots of Wednesday's Delhi High Court blast, India and Pakistan will shortly begin work on continuing with their dialogue process on all outstanding issues, said government sources.
Activity on initiating the second round of post-Mumbai attack talks will start after the visit by Pakistan Commerce Minister Makhdoom Amin Fahim towards this month end when officials expect a big ticket announcement to expand trade ties.
With External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna slated to visit Pakistan in the second half of next year, meaning by June end, officials said both sides would be looking at dates “between now and then” to begin talks on eight subjects.
Officials expect talks between Mr. Fahim and Commerce Minister Anand Sharma to set the tone for the next round of comprehensive talks that will cover subjects from terrorism to culture. After mentioning its desire to extend the most favoured nation status to India several times in the past, Mr. Fahim is expected to declare his government's intention in this regard during this visit.
Pakistan has also announced plans to move over from the positive list to negative list as far as trade with India is concerned by next month. Currently, Pakistan has given access to 1,940 product lines on its positive list and has 12,000 on the negative list. But half of the items on the positive list are not exported by India or it imports these items.
If Pakistan moves over to the negative list, which generally contains a small number of sensitive items, trade could get normalised to a great extent because the remaining items would be traded according to the prevalent duty structures.
In return, Pakistan is demanding an end to non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that prevent many of its goods from entering India. Two rounds have already been held on this and other trade-related subjects — the first in April between the Commerce Secretaries and the second at the Joint Secretaries level late last month. With Pakistan blocking Indian imports by the positive list, India has so far maintained that the NTBs Pakistan claims are not country-specific. The first meeting between the Commerce Ministers after a gap of three years is poised to address both issues, provided unforeseen events don't force a slide in bilateral ties, said the government sources.
Islamabad has sought to address India's concerns about the slow pace of prosecuting those held in Pakistan for masterminding the 2008 Mumbai attacks by setting up a Judicial Commission which is to visit India. After communicating its decision, Pakistan is expected to ask India for dates for the panel visit to Mumbai and take statements from the judicial and investigating officers besides the doctors who conducted the post-mortem on the nine killed attackers.
Pakistan says the Judicial Commission would strengthen the case against its nationals arrested for involvement in the Mumbai terror attacks.
India too has avoided ruffling Pakistan's feathers, especially in the period following al-Qaeda chief Osama bin-Laden's killing in Abbottabad. Immediately after bin-Laden's killing, senior officials here dampened the goading by some strategic experts to turn the screws on Pakistan or undertake a U.S.-type operation to eliminate militant leaders involved in violence against India.
“You can't luxuriate in the assumption that India could exercise a giant swatter-like approach towards Pakistan. This is not realistic. Our approach has to be a factor of where we are and where we are placed. Pakistan is a foreign country but part of us. We have a very different relationship [from the Americans]. It is very easy to be hawkish on Pakistan. It is very easy to say: bring Pakistan on its knees. But it won't be the end game. The story won't end there,'' the sources had then observed.
Even if the big ticket announcements are not made, Mr. Fahim's visit could see further discussions on liberalising the business visa regime and greater volume flow trade by the land routes. Pakistan would also urge India not to challenge the European Union's preferential trade package offered after last year's floods. Either way officials feel the meet will set the tone for the next round of post-Mumbai comprehensive dialogue.
