The summer months from March-May will be “warmer” than normal and several parts of north India, at least a degree hotter than their average summer temperatures, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its annual summer forecast. The ‘normal’ temperatures refer to the mean temperatures during those months between 1981 and 2010.
Several parts of India — ranging from Palakkad in Kerala to Mumbai — reported day time temperatures on Tuesday greater than 35 degrees Celsius, or heat wave conditions. “We haven’t yet analysed February temperatures but this could be just a phase,” said K.J. Ramesh, Director-General, India Meteorological Department.
North, west and east
A harsh summer is in store for Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, west and east Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, west and east Uttar Pradesh, west and east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Gujarat and Arunachal Pradesh, with mean seasonal temperature-spikes likely to be greater than 1 degree Celsius.
The IMD outlook also added Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema would see temperature rise between 0.5 degrees Celsius and 1 degree Celsius from their historical normal.
Last year too, the IMD had forecast summer temperatures in several parts of north, northwest, central and east India to be over 1 degree Celsius of their historical summer normals. The IMD’s climate summary in January said that 2017 was the “fourth warmest year on record since 1901”.
“Studies also indicate increasing trends in the frequency and duration of heat waves over the country, which can be attributed to increasing trends in the greenhouse gases and the warming of the sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans,” the IMD noted in its press statement.
While early days yet for the South West monsoon, the latest forecast from IMD’s models indicate that La Nina — a weather condition that generally brings heavy rains to India — will wane after spring. However forecasts before spring are, according to meteorologists, prone to error with better accuracy after May.
