Coronavirus cases in India are expected to rise by early next year following the experience of Israel and the United Kingdom (U.K.) with the Omicron variant, experts said at an online discussion on Friday organised by the Ashoka University, Sonepat, Haryana.
India is currently adding a little under 10,000 cases a day and has about 88,000 active cases.
Omicron cases in the U.K. could exceed 1 million by the end of the month on the current trajectory, U.K. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said this week in a statement delivered to the House of Commons.
The online discussion was between Shahid Jameel, Director, Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University and Gautam Menon, Professor of Physics and Biology, Ashoka University.
The best strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 continued to be wearing masks, keeping closed places well ventilated, physical distancing and stepping up vaccination, they said.
“Before the emergence of the troubling variant of SARS- CoV-2 named Omicron, it was expected that people in India may be able to return to a life similar to pre-pandemic days by early next year, but this possibility now seems distant,” said Dr. Jameel.
The Omicron variant is concerning due to its number of mutations, highest among any variant so far. There are 50 in all, 32 in the Spike protein, making it significantly more transmissible than even the Delta variant, he said. “Presently, more than 63 countries around the world have reported cases associated with Omicron. The nature of Omicron mutations suggests increased efficiency of infection, transmission and evasion of antibodies and interferon, an early innate antiviral response.”
Early lab results from South Africa and Pfizer show a 40-fold and 25-fold drop in virus neutralisation ability of the Pfizer vaccine. According to various studies, booster shots have shown to increase the number of antibodies and cut reinfection rates. Given these results, it is now time that India devises policies on booster shots and vaccination for children, Dr. Jameel added.
“The news of emergence of the new Omicron variant from South Africa is worrying. We will know more in the coming weeks, but what we know so far is that this variant spreads more efficiently and can evade immunity even from an earlier infection of COVID-19 and vaccination. There are some positive indications, such as the severity of the illness being possibly less than that caused by Delta variant, but this requires confirmation. In India, it is essential for us to now step up the vaccination programme to vaccinate around 15% of India’s totally unvaccinated adults and also administer the second dose to the remaining population.
“Booster shots may be necessary, at least initially for frontline health care workers, those about 60 years of age and those who are immunocompromised, but others can wait for them. We require more information about the use of the currently available Indian vaccines as boosters and also about how the two vaccines most used in India — Covaxin and Covishield — might perform against the Omicron variant.”
India has so far confirmed at least 30 instances of the Omicron variant within its borders, though the evidence from South Africa so far suggests that it is not significantly leading to increased severity of disease or death rates. India’s health authorities have also warned that people should be circumspect and continue to observe COVID-19 appropriate behaviour.
