NEWS ANALYSIS
Sachin Pilot may be keeping his cards on future plans close to his chest, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been deliberating on the various scenarios arising out of developments in Rajasthan.
According to senior sources in the party, Sachin Pilot’s speculated exit from the Congress and moves to float a new outfit will not be an entirely happy development for the BJP, at least in the upcoming Assembly election in Rajasthan.
“The Gujjar vote in Rajasthan had traditionally been with the BJP; during the last Assembly poll, however, this had moved en masse to the Congress, since Sachin Pilot belongs to that community and as the State Congress president it was felt that he would be the choice for Chief Minister. In fact, it was a washout for the BJP in eastern Rajasthan, the big catchment area for the community’s vote,” said a senior leader of the BJP, speaking to The Hindu.
BJP’s major losses in the last Assembly poll in Rajasthan were in eastern Rajasthan and the desert area. The party lost all 26 seats in eastern Rajasthan in the poll.
Split of votes
If Sachin Pilot remains with the Congress, this vote will shift, as per the BJP’s calculations, back to the BJP. “If he floats a new party, however, some of the vote may remain with him on a narrative of hurt feelings,” he added. A tri-cornered contest of this kind may not help the BJP, the party feels, as some of the anti-Gehlot vote may split in a retail sort of way.
That Rajasthan is very much on the minds of the BJP was clear from the fact that former Chief Minister of the State, Vasundhara Raje had a one-on-one meeting with the general secretary (organisation) B.L. Santhosh on Wednesday. BJP president J.P. Nadda, Union Minister Amit Shah and Mr. Santhosh had held a marathon meeting on the party’s preparations for the upcoming Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and Telangana, and Ms. Raje’s meeting with Mr. Santhosh is being seen in that context.
“There have been some policy announcements by the Ashok Gehlot government, some things that need to be sorted out organisationally. Basically, in Rajasthan, the State unit needs to fight unitedly and Vasundhara Raje is key to that,” said a senior source.
Various scenarios with regard to Sachin Pilot also need to be factored in, although it is not clear whether that was part of the discussion between Ms. Raje and Mr. Santhosh as the latter handles the party organisation and much of the talk would be of tightening of the organisational nuts and bolts.
