Global politics continued to tilt to the right as several conservative parties pipped centrist governments in 2023. With Argentina, Finland, Nigeria, New Zealand and Poland throwing up unexpected poll results, here’s a look at the shift and its implications.
The shift to the political right may be set to continue. In 2024, ex-US President Donald Trump aims to oust incumbent 81-year-old Joe Biden in the U.S Presidential polls. Even In India, the ruling right-wing coalition led by Narendra Modi is seeking re-election for a record third term in 2024.
Here is a look at some of the most surprising global elections of 2023:
Argentina
A ‘political earthquake’ shook Argentina as the country elected fiery far-right fiery politician and TV pundit Javier Milei as its president on November 19. The 53-year-old libertarian economist, who echoed US President Donald Trump with his campaign slogan ‘Make Argentina Great Again,’ believes climate change is a socialist ploy, abortion rights are unnecessary and also alleged possible electoral fraud. He promised in his campaign to ‘blow up’ the central bank, and followed through on December 22; Mr. Milei deregulated the country’s economy by eliminating or changing more than 300 rules via presidential decree.
Supporters of Javier Milei gather outside his campaign headquarters after the election results on November 19. | Photo Credit: Matias Delacroix
In 2021, Mr. Milei founded the political coalition La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances) and amassed 17% of the votes in Buenos Aires in that year’s legislative election. Building his campaign by promising to end the country’s 40-year debt crisis, Mr. Milei surprised the nation by emerging as the candidate with the highest vote share in Argentina’s primary elections. Vowing to cut down on the size of the government, reduce pension funds, and privatise education and healthcare, Mr. Milei defied the pink wave currently cruising through South America and aligned himself with more conservative nations like the United States and Israel while disavowing ‘communist’ countries like China and Brazil.
Amassing 55.7% of the votes, Mr. Milei comfortably won the presidential run-off in November, overtaking his left-wing opponent and Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who garnered 44.3% of the vote. Ending the sway of Peronism (a 20th century brand of Leftist politics originating in Argentina), Mr. Milei’s victory was mainly attributed to Argentines’ fatigue with the 160% inflation rate, as 40% of the country continues to lives in poverty.
Presidential hopeful Javier Milei brandishes a chainsaw during a campaign event in La Plata, Argentina, on Tuesday, September 12, 2023 | Photo Credit: AP
Peppering his campaign with theatrics like revving a chainsaw, and smashing a pinata of the Central Bank, Mr. Milei had declared , “We will put an end to the parasitic, stupid, useless political caste that is sinking this country,” after he finished first in the primary elections in August.
As no candidate got a majority, both Mr. Massa (21.43% votes) and Mr. Milei (29.86%) advanced to the run-off elections held in October. Amidst voting, Mr. Milei alleged the possibility of election fraud due to irregularities in the first round of results, claiming that it could affect the results — similar to Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s election tactics. Mr. Milei’s fears were unfounded as he went on to win the polls by getting the highest percentage of votes ever polled by a presidential candidate since 1983 (when democracy was restored in Argentina).
Despite his massive victory, it is uncertain whether Mr. Milei would will be able to implement any of his radical policies as his party only holds 38 of the 257 seats in the lower house (Chamber of Deputies) and 7 of the 72 seats in the Senate. His recent presidential decree, which changes more than 300 rules, including a law which regulates rent and rules preventing privatization of state enterprises, must be assessed by a joint committee of lawmakers from both chambers within 10 days. If rejected by both Houses, the decree will be overturned.
Nigeria
Africa’s most populous country – Nigeria – saw the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC) retain power in the 2023 presidential elections held on February 23. Mr. Bola Tinubu (70), the former governor of Lagos, was declared the winner after he polled 8.8 million votes (36.61%), beating his rival Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), who polled 6.98 million votes, closely followed by Labour Party’s Peter Obi who garnered 6.1 million votes.
The Nigerian election was closely watched by international observers since it had potential geopolitical ramifications. With its neighbours Burkina Faso, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Mali witnessing coups and coup attempts, Nigeria is seen as a stabilising force in West Africa, with its successful civilian-run democratic government. As APC retained power in the seventh successive election in Nigeria since 1993, when military rule ended, Nigeria saw a peaceful transfer of power despite Opposition parties filing legal appeals seeking a re-vote.
President of Nigeria and chairperson of ECOWAS, Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the bloc’s summit on August 10. | Photo Credit: AFP
However, the poll campaign was not bereft of controversies. Mr. Tinubu’s choice of running mate, Kashim Shettima from the terror-ravaged Borno state, stirred a row as the ticket was a Muslim-Muslim one. It is traditional in Nigeria that the presidential ticket is split between the Muslim and Christian communities to maintain national unity. Brushing off allegations of religious disparity, Mr. Tinubu insisted that his choice was based on competence.
The campaign for the top post mainly saw candidates tackle issues like inflation— at 21.8% at the time of polls, 33% unemployment in a nation where 42.5% of the population is young adults between 18-35 years of age, and security threats from terror groups such Boko Haram, kidnapping gangs and other separatist insurgency groups. Most young voters preferred Peter Obi, as he promised to end banditry, increase financial lending to small and medium enterprises and co-operate with neighbouring countries to secure Nigerian borders.
Lowest voter turnout in Nigeria’s election history helped APC retain power
With the lowest turnout since 1999, only 24.9 million of the 93.47 million registered voters exercised their right at the ballot boxes on February 25. While Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) attributed it to the late arrival of officials, thuggery, technical glitches, violence and voter suppression, increased voter apathy has been a major trend in Nigeria for the past three elections.
New Zealand
New Zealand saw a shift once again to the Right as the incumbent Labour Party lost power on October 14, 2023, failing to form the seventh Labour government. The centre-right group — the New Zealand National Party, led by Christopher Luxonx — emerged as the single-largest, winning 48 seats in the 123-seat House of Representatives. Labour was reduced to a mere 31 seats, followed by the Green Party, which won 15 seats.
The results were seen as a ‘forceful rejection’ of the Labour party as voters sought a change from the Left’s policies formulated by ex-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Paying for the rising cost of living, inflation, interest hikes and the long-term effects of the COVID-19 lockdown, the Labour party lost votes not only to right-wing parties but also to other Left parties like the Green Party. According to The Guardian, voters felt that the Labour party had failed to keep some of its bigger promises like reducing child poverty, prison reform or protecting Indigenous rights.
Jacinda Ardern makes her final speech to New Zealand’s Parliament in Wellington, on Wednesday, April 5, 2023, after her five-year tenure as prime minister. | Photo Credit: AP
Moreover, Ms. Ardern’s abrupt resignation in January this year citing ‘fatigue’ left her successor – Chris Hipkins – with the arduous task of revamping Labour’s deteriorating numbers in the polls. In a bid to boost support, Mr. Hipkins began scaling back some of Ms. Ardern’s progressive policies – imposing a wealth tax, law to outlaw hate speech against religious groups, a new insurance scheme to cushion layoffs, and incentives for usage of bio-fuels. His decisions, which were aimed at retaining Labour’s centrist voters resulted in alienating its core left-leaning voters, who felt Labour was failing further to deliver on its promises.
Capitalising on voter fatigue, the National Party along with its libertarian ally ACT Party won in several traditionally Labour bases, promising a slew of tax cuts and to slash government spending. However, they fell short of the halfway margin of 62 seats as ACT managed to win only 11 seats, taking their tally to 59 seats. The coalition was forced to ally with populist party New Zealand First, which won 8 seats, to form the new government with a slim majority.
Finland
Following Europe’s right-wing trend, one its the most liberal nations – Finland – saw its incumbent Left-wing coalition led by Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) Sanna Marin narrowly lose to the conservative National Coalition Party (NCP) in April 2023. 54-year-old Petteri Orpo negotiated with the far-right wing Finns party (46 seats), Swedish People’s party of Finland (9 seats) and the Christian Democrats (5 seats) to form a slim-majority government with 108 seats in the 200-seat parliament.
In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland applied, lobbied and successfully became a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). While this was seen as a diplomatic victory for ex-PM Sanna Marin, it also led to a major inflow of refugees from Yemen, Somalia, Syria and Iraq via Russia. Capitalising on this, the anti-immigration and Euro-sceptic far-right Finns party led by Riikka Purra alleged that the refugees were behind ‘a rise in street gangs’. Her hard-line campaign for tougher immigration laws, delaying Finland’s carbon neutrality to 2035 and exiting the European Union saw her beat Ms. Marin by 3000 directly cast votes.
Prime minister of Finland Sanna Marin holds a press conference in Helsinki, Finland, on Friday August 19, 2022. . | Photo Credit: AP
Ms. Marin, who deftly handled the COVID-19 pandemic and Finland’s NATO membership, has been voted as the nation’s most popular Prime Minister in this century – gaining global praise. However, back home, she was plagued with controversies due to her ‘party videos’, rising public debt and cost of living. Being the youngest PM in the world at the age of 34, Ms. Marin was often accused of inexperience which was only further exacerbated by videos of her partying with her friends.
Mr. Orpo, who campaigned on cutting government spending by six billion euros to revitalise Finnish economy, saw a surge in polls initially. However, as elections neared, his gains shrank and the elections resulted in a tightly-contested verdict in which none the three leading parties saw a reduction in vote share or seats. Compared to the 2019 elections, the NCP gained 3.8% votes and 10 seats, Finns gaines 2.6% votes and 7 seats while SDP gained 2.2% votes and 3 seats.
The new government of Finland led by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, right, and the new Minister of Finance Riikka Purra hold a press conference in Helsinki, Finland on June 20, 2023 | Photo Credit: Jussi Nukari
The close finish led to tough negotiations as Mr. Orpo kept his options open to ally with either the Finns or the SDP. While the NCP — a pro-business conservative party – differs with SDP on budget spending and Finns on immigration, Mr. Orpo chose the Finns to form a four-party coalition government in June 2023, two months after the poll results.
Poland
In a reverse trend, Poland’s far-right government led by Mateusz Morawiecki failed to retain power despite being the single-largest party in the Polish parliamentary elections held on October 15, 2023. The Opposition led by Platforma Obywatelska’s (PO) Donald Tusk won enough seats to oust the ruling United Right alliance led by Morawiecki’s Law and Justice (PiS) party. While PiS won 194 seats, the Opposition’s Civic coalition won 248 seats combined (PO’s 157 seats, Third Way’s 65 seats and The Left’s 26 seats) in the 460-seat lower House of Poland (Sejm).
In the run-up to the elections, the Sejm passed a law allowing the establishment of a State Commission which would probe Russian influence in Poland’s internal policies between 2007-2022. The law commonly known as ‘Lex Tusk’ empowers the state-appointed commission to eliminate anyone from public or political life if suspected of aiding Russian interference. The public rose in anger, deeming the law unconstitutional and a ‘concentrated effort’ to remove Mr. Tusk from the election race.
Protesters wave flags during the “Freedom March” in Warsaw, Poland, in June 2023 | Photo Credit: AP
During the election campaign, Mr. Tusk led hundreds of thousand Poles against the ruling government’s unconstitutional laws tightening electoral rules, curbing the judiciary’s powers and constitutional freedoms such as abortion, LGBTQ rights, and social housing. Fearing Poland’s slide into autocracy, like neighbours Turkey and Hungary, have also vented frustration against rising inflation due to the government’s erratic spending. Through nine years of the PiS government, the European Parliament too has feared Poland’s exit from the Union as the government often passed several undemocratic laws opposed to EU’s values.
Calling the public to rise for the sake of the nation’s future, Mr. Tusk’s campaign resonated with Poles who were reminded of the nation’s past under the Nazi rule. With a record turnout of 74.4%, PiS still won the highest vote share of 35.4% (a dip of 8% from the 2019 polls), followed by the Civic Coalition which won 30.7%, Third Way won 14.4 %, the Left got 8.6% and the far-right Confederation won 7.2%. Apart from gaining enough seats in the Sejm, the Opposition also won 66 seats compared to PiS’ 34 seats in the Senate — taking control of the less powerful Upper House too.
: The leader of Civic Coalition (KO), Donald Tusk tanks to voters and members of the parliament after receiving a majority of votes to be the next Prime minister during a parliament session on December 11, 2023 in Warsaw, Poland. | Photo Credit: Getty Images
Poland’s return to the centre has sent a deep sigh of relief across Europe. With election of Donald Tusk —former president of the European Council — the European Union may reconsider unfreezing the billions of euros allocated to Poland as part of the COVID-19 pandemic recovery fund. European commission had blocked €35 billion in EU grants and loans for COVID-19 recovery and €76.5 billion of regular development funds, citing Poland’s backsliding on EU’s democratic principles. Poland, which neighbours Ukraine, is bound to step its support against Russia under Mr.Tusk’s administration.
However, with PiS-backed President Andrzej Duda in office, many of Mr.Tusk’s plans of restoring media freedom, judicial independence, pro-EU policies, curtail inflation and restoration of constitutional and democratic values, may hit a roadblock. Mr. Duda has already refused to sign the new government’s spending bill, setting up tough weeks of negotiations for Mr. Tusk.
