China called him a ‘troublemaker’, a ‘dangerous separatist’ who is opposed to the ‘peaceful re-unification’ of Taiwan with the mainland. Warships, aircraft and balloons were sent as warning signs. The people of Taiwan were warned against choosing him in the Presidential elections.
Meet Lai Ching-te, or William Lai — leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and come May, the self-ruled island’s next President. When asked last year who his desired dinner guest was, among all global leaders, Mr. Lai chose Xi Jinping, China’s President. What he would tell Xi at the dinner? “Chill out”, and “do not put everyone under so much pressure”.
China has a noted antipathy for the DPP politician: in 2017, Mr. Lai declared he was a “pragmatic worker” for Taiwan’s formal independence, opposing Beijing’s claims over the island.
On January 13, Mr. Lai claimed victory, receiving 40% of the vote in a historic election. “The election has shown the world the commitment of the Taiwanese people to democracy,” the 64-year-old said at a victory rally, a sentiment he hopes “China can understand”.
Mr. Lai is seen as “soft-spoken”, “polite”, “compassionate”; but also “firm”, “aggressive” and “stubborn”. Between these extremes sits Mr. Lai, his new office at the centre of a seven-decade-long international rivalry. The choices he makes will determine the status quo between the U.S. and China, China and Taiwan, and Taiwan and the world.
Rise of a politician
Mr. Lai never started out to be a politician — that is until 1996, when China fired missiles into the waters around Taiwan, triggering a military crisis.
His first choice was to become a doctor. He studied medicine at the National Taiwan University, did a master’s in public health at Harvard University, specialising in spinal cord injuries. Mr. Lai was a new doctor in the southern city of Tainan, when Taiwan was about to hold its first free presidential elections. The year 1996 was his “defining moment”. “...I had a duty to participate in Taiwan’s democracy and help protect this fledgling experiment from those who wished it harm,” he wrote last year in The Wall Street Journal.
Mr. Lai has said his “willpower” to fight traces back to a difficult childhood. Mr. Lai’s father, a coal miner, died in a work accident. He spoke in an election video about living in a rickety lodge next to the mines. “One day, I suddenly realised,” he said at an event last year, “the biggest asset my father left me was that my family was poor... Growing up in such a family, we will have more courage to overcome difficulties”.
The Gist
Mr. Lai’s mother raised six children in precarious conditions. He reportedly shares a close relationship with his mother, appreciating “how hard she works”, Luo Wen-jia, an ex-Cabinet Minister, told Nikkei Asia. A biography of Mr. Lai notes that his mother only “reluctantly” supported a pivot to politics. He was resistant too at first: he was persuaded by DPP leaders to counter the authoritarian rule of the Kuomintang (KMT). Mr. Lai gave in. He said in an election video: “Instead of criticising the government... from my clinic, wouldn’t it be better to come out... and actually do something for Taiwan?” He became first a Mayor for two years, then a legislator for over a decade. In 2017, he became the Premier, followed by Vice President to the incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen.
His modest background also made him appear more sensitive in the eyes of voters. “He’s suffered through cold and poverty... he understands the hardships that we people went through at the grass roots,” a DPP activist told the Times.
Tsai 2.0
Analysts expect Mr. Lai to follow the political tone of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. In a campaign video, the two are seen driving through the island, reflecting on their tenure. Ms. Tsai hands over the keys to Mr. Lai in the end — symbolic of continuity in Taiwan’s politics. “So much of [his] campaign has been trying to reassure not just a domestic audience, but an international audience that he is Tsai Ing-wen 2.0,” political science professor Lev Nachman told CNN.
Ms. Tsai is credited with maintaining a stable relationship across the Strait despite strains in ties with China, and building a strong partnership with the U.S. as an ally. Mr. Lai is expected to follow suit: investing in Taiwan’s military capacity and strengthening its economy. Mr. Lai plans to reduce reliance on China as a trading partner, and build ties with other like-minded countries, including the U.S., Europe, Japan and Australia.
Unlike Ms. Tsai, however, Mr. Lai has a combative streak that hasn’t gone unnoticed. As Premier, he once controversially remarked that “Taiwan is already an independent sovereign country” so there is “no plan or need” to declare independence. China banned Mr. Lai from travelling to the mainland and Hong Kong; a Chinese newspaper called for his arrest. In 2019, Mr. Lai ran against his future boss, Ms. Tsai, rallying for a more aggressive policy towards China. David Sacks, an analyst, told The Times that Mr. Lai is “prone to a slip of the tongue, that Beijing pounces on”. His limited foreign policy experience also breeds scepticism. The new leadership “could bring new challenges to maintaining peace across the Strait”, said Rosie Levine, of the United States Institute of Peace, Washington DC.
In the ad, Mr. Lai says to Ms. Tsai: “We may do things differently, but we have the same principles at heart.” He drew parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan, noting that the war in the north “awakened the international community to the fragility of democracy”. Last week, Mr. Lai said his victory was a message that between democracy and authoritarianism, Taiwan “will stand on the side of democracy”.
A political likeness to his predecessor is received with ambivalence closer to home. The island of 23 million people faces a sluggish economy and an ageing population. Young voters see Ms. Tsai’s DPP as the “establishment” after eight years in power. Unaffordable housing, growing inequality, limited job opportunities add to their disillusionment. The DPP won fewer seats this year in comparison to 2020 and has lost a majority in Parliament, which will require him to forge alliances to pass legislation.
Committed to status quo
Mr. Lai, over the years, has tempered his stance. He is “committed” to maintaining the status quo, but also “determined to safeguard Taiwan” from China’s intimidation, he said at the victory rally. In January, the Taiwanese Defence Ministry detected Chinese spy balloons and military aircraft in the region. Reports suggest China flooded Taiwanese voters with false reports of Mr. Lai’s tax evasion, sex scandals and a “conspiracy” to go to war with China. In his New Year’s address, Mr. Xi told Taiwan voters that a ‘reunification’ is inevitable.
A game of waiting thus commences. The DPP could lose its sheen, widening schisms in Taiwan’s legislature, if Mr. Lai loses favour among young voters. Its economy can flail or flourish — Mr. Lai balances a defence relationship with the U.S. and an economic one with China as the two feud over semiconductor exports. The relationship between the U.S. and China can also develop or deflate, depending on Mr. Lai’s approach towards the question off ormal independence.
A lot is on stake, from Taiwan’s economic prosperity to regional stability and global security.
And all eyes are on Lai Ching-te.
