What is it?
The midterms, to be held on November 6, are elections to the United States Congress — the Senate and the House of Representatives — that occur in the middle of the four-year term of a President. All 435 House seats are up for grabs; each has a two-year term. A third of all 100 Senate seats, each lasting six years, is contested every two years. This year, 33 seats plus two retiree seats (Republican Thad Cochran of Mississippi retired earlier this year and Arizona Senator Jeff Flake is retiring imminently) are being contested. Additionally, 36 States are electing Governors on November 6. The Governors are not just the titular heads, but chief executives. Republicans govern 33 of the 50 States, while Democrats have 16 (Alaska is governed by an Independent).
Why does it matter?
The U.S. constitution has set up a system of checks and balances by vesting power in the President and the executive, the legislature (Congress), and the judiciary. Therefore, control of Congress and the White House has implications for how well these checks and balances work and what legislation goes through. When the President’s party controls Congress, it is easier for him to push his legislative agenda through than if the Opposition controlled both or even one House: this is especially the case today when there has been a near complete breakdown of bipartisanship and political divisions are deepening.
How will it pan out?
The Republicans have 235 seats in the House, the Democrats 193, and there are seven vacancies. The Democrats are likely to flip the House, as per several polls. Polling outfit, fivethirtyeight.com, gives them a 78% chance at least. Online political journal The Cook Political Report expects Democrats to make a net gain of 25-40 seats as of this writing. The Republicans have 51 Senate seats, while Democrats have 49. But of the 36 seats being contested, 26 are held by Democrats — so they have more at stake. Like other prominent pollsters, these analyses suggest the Senate is most likely to stay in Republican control. The most likely scenario is a split Congress: Democrats take charge of the House and Republicans retain the Senate. If this happens, the House will likely begin impeachment proceedings against the President — and if passed by a simple majority, it goes to the Senate which acts as a jury and if it “convicts,” it needs to confirm this with a two-thirds majority. This is unlikely to happen if Republicans control the Senate. However, this isn’t all of it: winning the House means Democrats get to chair powerful committees on the judiciary, finance, oversight and government reform. There will likely be a slew of subpoenas and investigations into “corruption” in the Trump administration, his attempts to influence investigating agencies and questions on the role of the U.S. armed forces abroad. In short, the Democrats will put the brakes on the Trump administration’s agenda. Recently, Minority Whip Steny H. Hoyer said Democrats, if they took control of the House, would look to clean up campaign financing. As for judicial appointments, Republicans, who have prided themselves on appointing two Supreme Court justices in the last two years, will continue to fill any vacancy with conservative judges, if they control the Senate. This is because the Senate vets the President’s judicial nominees.
What lies ahead?
If the Democrats win the House and the Senate (if this happened, they would have a thin majority), Mr. Trump would have to make deals with them on healthcare, social security spending, immigration and other key issues. While a Democratic Senate would control judicial appointments, the Democrats would need a large majority to confirm impeachment proceedings against Mr. Trump. If Republicans win both Houses, there will be more conservative judicial appointments, an attempt at repealing Obamacare (which they tried to do last year, unsuccessfully), and unless something egregious occurs or is revealed, Mr. Trump is highly unlikely to get impeached.
