The U.K. Conservative Party suffered significant losses in two of three parliamentary byelections on Thursday, in what is being seen by some as a strong indicator of their prospects in next year’s general election.
The Tories lost to Labour by a sizeable margin in the northern England constituency of Selby and Ainsy, and to the Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) in the Conservative stronghold of Somerton and Frome. They managed to retain former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s seat in the west London area of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, but with a reduced majority.
Labour secured a record win in Selby, with twenty-five-year-old Keir Mather ousting them after winning by a margin of over 4,100 votes or 46% of the vote share (versus the Conservatives’ 34.3%). The newly minted youngest MP, who is a former parliamentary researcher and public relations adviser, ran a campaign focused on the cost of living crisis facing the country.
In the Somerton area in England’s South West, the Lib Dems’ Sarah Dyke won a majority of over 11,000, taking a Conservative seat — a 29% swing away from the Tories.
Local councillor Seve Tuckwell won a recount in Uxbridge by a 495-vote majority. Former Prime Minister Johson had held the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat for eight years before resigning last month, after a parliamentary committee found that he lied to Parliament and was about to suspend him. Following his resignation, his colleague Nigel Adams, representing Selby, also resigned.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak defended his party’s performance and pushed back against the idea that his party was heading for a defeat next year. His party is trailing labour in opinion polls, with the country reeling from high levels of inflation, dissatisfaction over public sector pay, rising interest and mortgage rates, problems with public services, specifically in the National Health Service (NHS).
“Westminster’s been acting like the next election is a done deal. The Labour Party has been acting like it’s a done deal. The people of Uxbridge just told all of them that it’s not,” he said on Friday, as he visited the constituency. Mr. Tuckwell attributed his victory in part to London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s decision to increase the size of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (an area covering parts of London that require automobiles to pay a congestion charge). The area is set to expand to cover all of London from August 29. Members of Mr. Khan’s own Labour party have suggested he rethink his decision but the mayor has stuck by his plans.
““Even if we include the Uxbridge result, together with Selby and Somerton, on average, the Conservative vote was down by 21 points in those three constituencies,” political scientist John Curtice told BBC Radio 4.
“The message on Thursday is that basically the Conservatives are indeed as deep [down] an electoral hole as the opinion polls have been suggesting.”
