Presidential candidates crisscrossed the country in the run up to Super Tuesday (March 5) this year, when 17 U.S. States and territories hold their primaries and caucuses to pick their contenders for November’s general election. The support of more than a third of each party’s delegates (i.e., representatives who vote in the parties’ conventions to select the candidate) is up for grabs on Tuesday.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sweep the Republican contests on Tuesday, with Nikki Haley, the former American Ambassador to the U.N., having won just one race thus far (Washington DC). Although, at this stage, a Biden-Trump showdown is all but certain, further campaigning has been planned for the following weeks, with groups of states voting in March and April. Mr Trump, who has just under 100 cases against him, received a boost on Monday as the U.S. Supreme Court said it was wrong for the State of Colorado to have taken him off its ballot for his role in the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
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The incumbent, U.S. President Joe Biden, is running uncontested for the Democratic (re)nomination in many of the states, while some states will have other contestants on them, such as self-help author Marianne Williamson and Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips.
Mr Biden is therefore expected to win the day on Tuesday but the process has revealed that the ultimate path to the White House - when the primaries are completed and Mr Biden presumably faces Mr Trump - will be far more challenging for Mr Biden, than is often the case for a sitting President seeking a second term. Questions about Mr Biden’s age, perceptions about the economy and inflation and Mr Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict have been working against him.
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Mr Biden was faced with bleak polling results over the weekend. A New York Times/ Sienna College poll indicated that the President had the support of 43% of registered voters versus Mr Trump’s 48%. Some 10% of those who voted for Mr Biden in 2020 were planning to vote for Mr Trump in 2024. Democratic primary voters were more or less equally split on whether Mr Biden should be their party’s candidate, as per the poll, with the strongest opposition to the idea from those under 45 years of age. The data also indicated that Mr Biden’s edge over Mr Trump among non-white non-college graduates had also significantly narrowed since 2020.
After Democratic politicians urged primary voters in the crucial swing state of Michigan to show their frustration with Mr Biden’s policy towards Israel’s retaliatory attacks on Gaza, which have claimed more than 30,000 lives, more than 100,000 Michiganders cast an ‘ uncommitted’ ballot in last week’s Democratic primary.
This was more than the target of 10,000 uncommitted votes and was some five times the number of such votes in the last two presidential elections and is being seen as a warning to Mr Biden to change his accommodative stance towards Israel. A growing number of voters, not just Muslim Americans but also younger voters across the board , could sit at home on election day if the administration continues with the status quo. A few thousand voters could make a huge difference: Mr Trump beat former Democratic presidential candidate Hilary Clinton in Michigan by less than 11,000 votes in 2016 and Mr Biden won the state from Mr Trump in 2020 by a margin of 2.8% (just over 154,000 votes).
On Sunday, Vice President Kamala Harris called for an immediate ceasefire in the region and a return of hostages taken by Hamas. On Monday, she was scheduled to meet with Israeli War Cabinet Member Benny Gantz.
Trump set to win big on Tuesday
Mr Trump has so far won 247 delegates - more than 10 times Ms Haley’s tally. So far his legal troubles have not prevented Mr Trump from moving forward and he has used them in his campaign rallies to portray himself as the victim of a political witch-hunt.
Ms Haley, who served on the Trump cabinet, has said she will remain in the race as long as she is “ competitive” but declined to define this term. She has shown some traction among college graduates and independent voters as well those who consider themselves’ moderate.
While she has claimed she is not anti-Trump, Ms Haley’s attacks on her former boss have become sharper in the run up to Super Tuesday. She has suggested that both lead candidates are too old for the job, has pointed to the fiscal deficit and spending - particularly during Mr Trump’s time in the White House and criticized his ‘ isolationist ‘ foreign policy and admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Significantly, Ms Haley did not commit to supporting Mr Trump if he is the chosen GOP candidate, when questioned about a pledge all GOP candidates had to take before an intra-party debate that they would support the eventual nominee. She cited changes in the party organisation, specifically Mr Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump’s bid for the position of Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC).
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“The RNC is now not the same RNC , now it’s Trump’s daughter in law, “ she told NBC’s ‘ Meet the Press’ on Sunday. She also said she did not know if Mr Trump would abide by the country’s constitution if elected.
Other important contests to be held on Tuesday
There are also a number of ‘ down ballot ‘ primaries on Super Tuesday- such as a primary contest for the post of governor (North Carolina), several for the U.S. House of Representatives , where the Republicans have a four seat majority, and the U.S. Senate., including a primary contest in California for the late Senator Diane Feinstein’s Senate seat.
