The story so far: The United States’ mid-term elections which are scheduled for November 8, could potentially reshape the landscape of national politics in the country, especially if they result in control of the House of Representatives shifting from Democrat to Republican.
Will elections be held for both the House of Representatives and Senate?
The election will see each of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 — slightly more than one-third — of the 100 seats in the Senate come up for grabs. A range of local elections will be on the cards too, including 39 state, gubernatorial and similar contests.
A key factor to keep in mind while analysing the results — expected within a day of the vote — is that a major redistricting exercise was conducted in the aftermath of the 2020 census, that resulted in the boundaries of voting districts being redrawn by state authorities, notwithstanding gerrymandering allegations that came up, in certain cases, implying a deliberate attempt to dilute majorities in certain districts that do not favour the party in power.
What is the backdrop to the elections?
The mid-term elections pose high stakes for Democrats who have so far enjoyed overwhelming control of Congress and the White House — projections suggest there is a risk that they might lose their majority in the House. A relevant fact in this context is that the House flipped to the party not controlling the White House after the mid-term elections under each of the three past Presidents — Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush. Most pollsters concur that mid-term elections generally serve as a referendum on a sitting President. However, the edge that the Republican Party held in numerous races has been somewhat blunted by the Supreme Court ruling against the constitutional right to abortion as enshrined in Roe vs Wade with the expectation that the ruling could mobilise Democratic voters across U.S. states, leading to much higher turnouts on Election Day. It is unclear which way the Senate, whose partisan balance is poised on a razor’s edge — 50 seats held by each of the two major parties and their allies — will lean after the election. Besides redistricting, a second important factor with a likely impact on the election result, is how voters will view the Congressional inquiry into the January 6 riots and assault on the Capitol buildings by alleged supporters of Mr. Trump, and the seizure of classified documents from his mansion in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. Whichever side of the fence they stand on, voters’ opinions on these developments will also signal the extent to which the phenomenon of “Trumpism” still evokes support amongst Americans.
What will the economic policy outlook be after the mid-terms?
Regardless of which party makes electoral gains on November 8, it will not change the fact that along with the rest of the world the U.S. is facing a difficult time economically, with the lingering after-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic still dampening business activity, and global supply chain disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiling the prospects of U.S. industry and igniting inflationary trends in the economy.
In fact, polls suggest that economic anxieties faced by the ordinary American far outstrip traditional concerns regarding crime, immigration, climate change, and even reproductive rights. This is partly reflected in the fact that although unemployment has dropped sharply in recent months, the economy is besieged by spiking inflation that has pushed up the cost of household staples such as food and energy dramatically.
Mr. Biden has for the most part polled poorly across the nation for his performance in office in recent months. Now, he will not only have to battle these complex policy challenges on the front foot, but it is likely that the mid-term election results may exacerbate gridlock in Washington if the House goes to the Republican Party. In this scenario the White House might be compelled to compromise further on its agenda and cut deals with the opposition that could dilute its original policy vision for the economy.
Which other policy issues will turn on the mid-term result?
Among the other key issues that will impact voter choices and could, subsequently, be manifested in policy changes, are the U.S.’s policy stance towards Ukraine, the criminal justice system, the quality of U.S. democracy and continuing partisan conflict.
On Ukraine, while the U.S. under Mr. Biden has stood resolutely with allies in Europe and elsewhere to help Kyiv push back against Russian territorial aggression, there are some Republicans, such as Kevin McCarthy, who are against the U.S. Congress writing “a blank check to Ukraine”.
Regarding judicial appointments, Mr. Biden has already succeeded in nominating at least 75 judges, far more than Mr. Trump or Mr. Obama had by this stage in their presidential terms — but this progress for Democrats may grind to a halt if the House goes to the Republicans, who could then block all White House nominations until “moderate” candidates are proposed.
Finally, if Republicans seize the House, it might not only bring to the fore numerous Trump-endorsed candidates who deny the validity of the 2020 presidential election result but it would also open the floodgates to an incessant barrage of investigations into the conduct of the Biden White House by the lower chamber.
This could well result in a heightened sense of acrimony in Congress, fuelling the malaise of policy logjams.
