Ukrainian forces facing a lack of munitions and manpower are digging in to resist Russian attack, mirroring the invaders’ strategy and showing Kyiv expects a drawn-out war.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that Kyiv’s troops were in an “ongoing process” of building around 2,000 kilometre of defensive lines.
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Britain’s Defence Ministry said that the works included “anti-tank dragon’s teeth and ditches, infantry trenches, minefields and fortified defensive positions” in a post on X.
“The establishment of major defensive positions is indicative of the attritional character of the conflict... any attempt to conduct breaching operations will likely be accompanied with high losses,” the ministry added.
Built in 2023, Russia’s so-called “Surovikin Line” on occupied Ukrainian soil stalled Kyiv’s counteroffensive with its three layered defence in depth.
Such barriers are designed both to wear down enemy forces and prevent them holding ground even if they succeed in breaking through.
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Ukraine’s version may be less elaborate and deep, but is needed to compensate for its ammunition shortage.
“Already, Ukrainian officials say that time is the key factor preventing them from building something resembling the... Surovikin line,” said Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher at Estonia’s International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS).
“Ammunition scarcity and diminishing morale have placed Ukraine squarely on the defensive,” he added.
Minimal gains
Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the second half of 2023, planned with backing from allies including the U.S., left Kyiv with minimal territorial gains and heavy losses. As the war has dragged on, defenders’ advantage over attackers has become starker than in many previous conflicts.
Mr. Zelenskyy’s lines “are designed to maximise the cost of casualties and fatalities for the Russians,” said Seth Jones, vice president of U.S.-based think-tank CSIS.
But Alexander Khramchikhin, a Russian military expert, said it was “proof that Ukraine has realised its offensive failed,”.
“Their success will depend on their quality” and on how much the construction effort is hobbled by Ukraine’s still-endemic corruption, he added.
“Do they have the manpower to build and defend them?” asked Vasily Kashin, of Moscow’s Higher School of Economics.
“Russia’s army has already broken through stronger Ukrainian fortifications at Avdiivka,” he added, referring to the frontline town in eastern region of Donetsk that fell to the Russians in mid-February.
Kyiv may be bowing to the present realities of the conflict, but its objective remains liberating its territory in the eastern Donbas region and the Crimean peninsula, which Russia took in 2014.
Ukrainian leaders hope that as the war wears on, Western sanctions will hobble Russia’s ability to sustain the effort.
Meanwhile in Moscow, the hope is that Western military and financial aid to Ukraine will dry up.
Both sides’ conjectures point to the same strategy for now: holding ground.
