On Sunday noon Damascus time, a geographically limited ceasefire agreement will kick in in Syria, and the U.S. hopes that this could be the modest beginning of an extensive cessation of conflict across the country, a senior State Department official, who was part of the negotiations, told reporters on Friday. The agreement reached by the U.S, Russia and Jordan seeks to enforce a ceasefire and deliver humanitarian assistance in southwest Syria.
But the official warned against unqualified optimism. “..there have been ceasefires in the past. At the end of the day, this is Syria. It’s a very complicated battle space and there are a lot of spoilers on the ground, and we’re effectively dependent upon outside parties with influence to ensure the compliance of those with whom they have influence.”
He added: “In the case of the Russians, obviously, that’s principally the regime forces; in the case of the U.S., Jordan, it’s the forces of the opposition. But again, there are spoilers on the ground. There is the regime, which we hope under Russian pressure will comply. There are jihadis from al-Qaida and from Daesh (Islamic State) even in southwest Syria, although smaller in number, that may well have a vested interested in spoiling the ceasefire.”
What he left unmentioned was the bitter internal wrangling within U.S. agencies, which possibly contributed to repeated collapse of ceasefire arrangements in Syria, last year, under the Barack Obama administration. The State Department and the Pentagon were not on the same page while then Secretary of State John Kerry negotiated a ceasefire agreement and a framework for coordinated efforts by Russia and the U.S. to target IS forces in September 2016.
President Barack Obama approved Mr. Kerry’s efforts, overruling the then Defence Secretary Ash Carter’s objections. The plan fell apart almost immediately after it was announced as a U.S.-led air campaign bombed a convoy of Syrian soldiers, killing 60, which the U.S. air force claimed was an accidental strike. Soon after an international aid convoy to Aleppo, which was allowed in as part of the agreement, was bombed, for which the U.S. blamed Russia. Towards the end of the Obama administration, the State Department admitted that U.S. agencies did not share the same view on Syria and cooperation with Russia on its resolution.
The entire issue is back on the table again, and the State Department official said the agreement was reached in Amman on Friday, after weeks of negations, and hours ahead of the first meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Modest beginning
The southwest of Syria is a “more manageable part”, and by Sunday, the three countries hope to chart out the details of the agreement, the official said. The attempt is to begin at a modest level. “…it is a first step in what we envision to be a more complex and robust ceasefire arrangement..”
The official recalled that past efforts towards a nationwide ceasefire did not hold as “the environment and circumstances in different parts of Syria are so profoundly different”. If the ceasefire holds good in the southwest, that still is no guarantee that it could be easily replicated elsewhere in the country, he said. “I’d caution other parts of the country are dramatically different, so we can’t simply say we’ve done this in southwest and we can take a cookie-cutter approach and apply it to some other part of the country.”
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said there is an overlap of Russian and American views on Syria though there are divergences in tactics and details. The future role of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the role of Iran in the peace process and which groups are considered legitimate stakeholders in the process are the questions that continue to keep Russia and the U.S. apart. “Our concerns about Iran’s role in Astana (a parallel peace process led by Russia), our concerns about Iran more generally inside of Syria will continue to inform our approach to all of these discussions” said the official.
On one hand, the Trump administration is more combative than the Obama administration towards Iran and on the other, it faces severe domestic scrutiny on its approach towards Russia, which suggests the path forward on Syria could be bumpy.
