China’s eyes are trained on the proceedings of the ruling Communist Party’s annual meeting where the clearest indication yet of who the next President will be is expected.
China’s leaders are meeting in Beijing this week in a regular plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), where 204 members of its Central Committee usually deliberate on policy. This year’s meeting has attracted more than the usual attention as among the announcements expected is the promotion of Vice-President Xi Jinping to the influential Central Military Commission.
His expected appointment as the vice-chairman of the Commission, which is at present headed by President Hu Jintao, will all but confirm Mr. Xi’s succession after Mr. Hu’s term expires in 2013, analysts say.
The CCP’s inner politics can often be opaque, and analysts usually rely on past patterns of appointments to determine routes of succession. Mr. Hu’s induction into the powerful military commission in 1999 was read by many as the final step in his rise up party ranks before he took over from Jiang Zemin in 2003.
Mr. Xi (56) is regarded as the sixth most powerful figure in China — he is the sixth ranked politician in the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee, the country’s most powerful decision-making body. He has generally kept a low profile during the tenure of Mr. Hu and little is known about his politics.
He previously served as a party leader in Shanghai, and his leadership there has, in some circles, earned him a reputation for backing liberal policies and more aggressive market reforms.
There were rumours in Beijing’s political circles earlier this year that Mr. Xi’s business interests and reputation for favouring greater liberalisation had raised concerns about his appointment among some sections of the party. There is a growing debate within the leadership on continuing the rapid opening up the economy has seen since reforms were launched in 1978 in light of rising inequalities and following the impact of the global financial crisis.
The other contender to the post is Li Keqiang, Vice-Premier, who enjoys a much closer relationship with Mr. Hu. Mr. Li is widely regarded as Mr. Hu’s protégé and was once considered the likelier successor, but Mr. Xi’s appointment as Vice-President in 2008 confirmed his higher position in the pecking order. Mr. Xi was seen by some as a consensus choice following reported opposition among some sections of the party to Mr. Hu handpicking his own successor.
Mr. Li is expected to succeed Wen Jiabao in the less important post of Premier in 2013.
Mr. Xi comes from an illustrious political family. His father Xi Zhongxun is regarded by the party as a revolutionary hero. A former army veteran, he played a role in the party’s rise to power in 1949. He, however, fell out of Mao Zedong’s favour in the early 1960s, and was later a vocal critic of the CCP’s handling of the Tiananmen Square student protests in 1989.
If Mr. Xi’s appointment does come through during the meetings which run until Friday, China may soon be in the unusual situation of having a First Lady who is a bigger household name than its President: Mr. Xi’s wife, Peng Liyuan, is a well-known folk singer in China and a regular performer at national events.
