If you are one of those heaving a sigh of relief over the good spell of pre-monsoon showers that has brought down the temperature, think again. There is a strong possibility of it affecting the southwest monsoon’s performance in the State this year, according to an initial forecast.
The Agro Meteorology Department of the University of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru, has indicated that the State may witness “below normal” monsoon mainly due to the impact of good pre-monsoon showers which are in excess of the normal by 12 to 15 per cent.
Professor at Agro Meteorology Department M.B. Raje Gowda, who is also the Registrar of the university, told The Hindu that the good pre-monsoon showers were bound to reduce soil and atmospheric temperature. This would result in the formation of high-pressure islands in the atmosphere over Arabian Sea along the State at a crucial time when monsoon activity is supposed to pick up. But the monsoon clouds move away from high-pressure atmospheric islands, resulting in the State losing out on monsoon rainfall to an extent, he explained.
The initial forecast puts the likely average deficit in the southwest monsoon rainfall for the entire State in the range of 3 to 7 per cent, he said.
According to him, such a deficit is bound to affect agricultural activity as the actual deficit for some of the areas, especially those witnessing high rainfall, could be higher than the State average.
More accurate details regarding the degree of impact of pre-monsoon showers as well as the quantum of deficit in the monsoon rainfall for the State would be known by the third week of May when further forecast would be done, Dr. Gowda said.
The southwest monsoon accounts for about 70 per cent of the calendar year’s rainfall in the State. Any deficit in monsoon rainfall is bound to affect agriculture, he observed.
The pre-monsoon showers occur from April to May and sometime extend till June.
Initial forecast puts average deficit in southwest monsoon rainfall in State in the range of 3 to 7 per cent
