A combination of factors seems to have given the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led coalition an edge over the front headed by the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in the southern districts of the Tamil Nadu.
Apart from anti-incumbency and the discontent over the rise in prices of petrol, diesel and cooking gas, the ruling front is also beset with double disadvantages from its core supporters based on caste.
Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2021
The presence of the breakaway Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) led by T.T.V. Dhinakaran, nephew of former AIADMK’s interim general secretary V.K. Sasikala and the strong pushback from sections of Mukkulathors, a dominant community in the region, to the State government’s decision providing 10.5% reservation to Vanniyars within the overall quota of 20% for Most Backward Classes and Denotified Communities, have thrown up serious challenges to the ruling party.
A functionary of the AIADMK in charge of the southern zone feels that the party should not have distanced itself from Ms. Sasikala, who belongs to a sub-sect of Kallars, one of the three constituent-castes of the Mukkulathors (the other two being Maravars and Agamudaiyars). Though she hails from the central region of the State, she was said to have played a key role, according to the community, in getting a golden armour presented by Jayalalithaa in 2014 for the bust of U. Muthuramalinga Thevar, an icon of the community. He said Ms. Sasikala’s hold over sections of the community should have spurred the party to revive its ties after her release from prison earlier this year.
Also read: Tamil Nadu Assembly Election | Modi assures completion of AIIMS in Madurai
Across the divide, a young DMK leader in Virudhunagar district said though his party has not played up the reservation issue, it is aware the two factors will enable Mr. Dhinakaran to cut into the AIADMK vote share.
Yet another challenge looming for the ruling front, given its ties with the BJP and its hardline Hindutva politics, is the considerable presence of religious minorities in the southern districts such as Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari. A veteran AIADMK leader from Ramanathapuram points out that ‘they [DMK] are banking on the overwhelming support from the minorities —Muslims and Christians. This is a huge plus factor for them.”
Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections | Congress winning less than 20 seats is a defeat, says party’s tech cell head
Economic backwardness and the strong caste affiliations in the southern districts have led to heightened communal sensitivities.
Lack of progress in high-profile infrastructure is also likely to affect the fortunes of the ruling AIADMK. A case in point is the widespread impact of DMK youth wing secretary Udhayanidhi Stalin recently holding up a brick to symbolise the slow progress of the proposed AIIMS in Madurai.
Also read: Tamil Nadu Assembly polls | ECI orders transfer of Karur Collector and SP
Subhasan, a trader who hails from Watrap and frequently visits Madurai, says that regardless of political affiliation, the general feeling among people is that an expeditious execution of the hospital project would make a huge difference to the region. While the project itself has made very little headway, real estate in and around the proposed site is on the rise.
Politically speaking, the south has favoured the AIADMK in the last 40 and odd years. Party founder M.G. Ramachandran won from seats in the region in 1977, 1980 and 1984. His successor and former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, who represented the south thrice in the Assembly, made her entry in the Assembly from Bodinayakkanur in Theni district in 1989. She returned to the region 13 years later when she got elected from Andipatti. In 2016, her last Assembly elections, the region returned 32 candidates for the AIADMK.
Several party heavy weights are contesting from the region. Deputy Chief Minister and party coordinator O. Panneerselvam is contesting from Bodinayakkanur, Forests Minister C. Sreenivasan in Dindigul, Revenue Minister R.B. Udhayakumar from Thirumangalam, former Electricity Minister R. Viswanathan from Natham, and former PWD Minister N. Thalavai Sundaram in Kanniyakumari.
Conceding that their party is facing an uphill task if it has to repeat its 2016 performance, two senior leaders of the AIADMK feel that their organisation should have retained the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam and Puthiya Tamilagam within its fold, as both can supplement the AIADMK’s base to certain extent.
However, they also point out that their organisation’s inherent strengths cannot be underestimated or brushed aside. The recent measure of providing the generic name of Devendrakula Velalars to a group of castes of the Scheduled Castes will expand their party’s votebase, they said.
Despite the ruling party giving tickets to a substantial number of persons from the Mukkalathor community in the region, the talk in political and public discourse about the chasm between certain sections of the Mukkulathors and the AIADMK will yield support from other communities to the party. Besides, there is a “sense of complacency” among the DMK, sources said.
“We, in the party, strongly believe that winning 60% of the seats — 35 out of 58 — is a doable, even though we are aware that it is not that easy,” a young AIADMK leader observes.
Mr. Dhinakaran, who is a sitting legislator of R.K. Nagar, a constituency in northern Chennai, has surprised many by choosing Kovilpatti, under Thoothukudi parliamentary constituency, as he had earlier said he would contest from one of the constituencies in Theni. An important figure in his election team, S.V.S.P. Manickaraja, who is also the AMMK’s south zone coordinator, claims that it was on his persuasion that Mr. Dhinakaran has chosen the constituency, located at a strategic point of the southern region.
Ms. Sasikala’s visits to many important temples in the region during the last 10 days and AMMK functionaries greeting her in a few places have added to the morale of workers of the party.
