The Congress party is used to political obituaries being written about it after every electoral setback since 2014, but its losses in the Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan last December made even its most optimistic supporters despondent.
The party had lost the Hindi heartland States in a round of Assembly polls that were described as the semi-finals ahead of the big final of the 2024 general election. The victory in Telangana was a mere consolation.
Since last December, most political analysts have been quick to conclude that the Lok Sabha election would be a mere formality, and that a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi was inevitable.
“Unlike many political commentators, I cannot predict the future. What I am confident of is that this is a much closer election than what is being propagated by the media. We are going to fight an excellent election and we are going to win the election,” former party chief Rahul Gandhi said at the launch of his party’s manifesto on April 5.
Framing the narrative
Irrespective of the final outcome, the Congress has shown a willingness to put up a strong fight by framing the 2024 battle as one between those “who want to destroy the Constitution and democracy and those who want to protect it”.
The arrests of Opposition leaders by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Income Tax department’s curbs on the Congress’ bank accounts were cited as examples of democracy being under threat, denying the Opposition a level playing field in the election.
The Congress used the Bharatiya Janata Party’s slogan of “400 paar”, its ambition for more than 400 seats in the Lok Sabha, to launch a counter offensive. It argued that once the BJP gets a tally of above 400, it would change the Constitution to end reservation for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs). On its part, the Congress promised higher quotas for other backward classes (OBCs) and economically weaker sections (EWS) by vowing to remove the 50% cap on reservation after conducting a caste-based census .
“The census that was due in 2021 has still not been done. It has been delayed by three years. Why? It is because they want to end reservation. They don’t want us to know the population of SCs and STs,” Congress communications chief Jairam Ramesh said at a press conference on April 25.
As the campaign progressed, Congress strategists believed that their slogan “reservation under threat” had taken roots among the people; Mr. Gandhi then started addressing his rallies with a copy of the Constitution in his hand.
Such persistent attack forced the BJP to respond with its counter allegation, that all reservations would be given only to Muslims if the Opposition INDIA bloc came to power.
Maintaining the “Tempo” of attack
The Congress’ uncharacteristic aggression was most visible in its response to the Prime Minister’s charge that Mr. Gandhi had “gone silent” and stopped abusing “Adani-Ambani” after receiving “Tempo-loads of black money” from the two businessmen.
“Has Tempo [van] loads of money reached the Congress? What deal has been arrived at, that abusing Ambani-Adani has stopped overnight?” Mr. Modi asked.
Hitting back at Mr. Modi, Mr. Gandhi released a video in which he asked whether receiving money in Tempos was “a personal experience” and asserted that the Prime Minister had got “a little scared”.
“Do one thing — send the CBI, ED to them and carry out a thorough investigation and don’t be scared,” Mr Gandhi dared Mr. Modi in a video statement, released within hours of the Prime Minister’s election speech at Telangana.
The ‘M’ factor and livelihood issue
The low turnout in the first phase saw the BJP recalibrate its campaign, with an emphasis on mangalsutra, mutton, machchli and even mujra — all euphemisms to corner the Congress over Muslim appeasement — in the Prime Minister’s speeches. Mr Modi’s allegations that the Congress was giving away Hindu wealth and caste quotas to Muslims started at Barmer, after the first murmurs were heard of the Congress and the INDIA bloc doing better than expected.
The Congress responded to each of the allegations, but stayed within the template of its 25 guarantees, with most leaders including Mr. Gandhi sticking to the economic pitch in their speeches.
Now, as the seven-phase election enters its final phase, each side is claiming to have delivered the winning punch. Besides an aggressive campaign, electoral victories are also a matter of leadership and a robust organisation, both areas where the BJP scores over the Congress. So, a third term for Mr Modi is a clear possibility; but the Opposition, which was written off only five months ago, has certainly managed to create a perception that it is still in the fight.
