After three phases of polling in Uttar Pradesh, as the Lok Sabha poll has moved from the relatively prosperous western areas towards the Mandal belt where the government’s role and doles in everyday life have a more pronounced effect, there are at least eight takeaways.
First, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call of “pehle matdaan, phir jalpaan (first vote, then refreshments)“ is not working on the ground. The BJP workers at the booths admit that the enthusiasm for voting is not as strong as they expected, and that bringing the voter to the booth is a task this time. Till 3 p.m., polling remained sluggish in most areas. “The cover fire that Modi-Yogi used to provide to the candidate is not working to the optimum, exposing even the candidates who won with big margins in 2019 to anti-incumbency,” said a BJP booth in-charge in Etmadpur in the Agra (reserved) constituency, still confident that the damage will be limited to a reduced victory margin.
Disenchanted with communal pitch
Second, the shrill Hindu-Muslim pitch is not striking a chord with the general public, many of whom see it as more of a distraction from real issues. In Mathura, seen as the next stop for the Hindutva jamboree, caste groups like the Jats and Dhangars, who constitute the shifting vote, cited a turnout of just 50%, underlining the public’s growing disenchantment with the polarising narrative.
Interestingly, some staunch BJP supporters told The Hindu they feel that this narrative is aimed at distracting them from the advantages that Muslims are getting from the government doles, particularly the housing scheme and the health card. “The government did nothing to control ‘their’ population and is providing them awas (housing)to multiply,” said Dharmveer Singh in the Tedhi Baghia area of Agra.
Fear of losing quotas
Third, the Opposition has been able to convey to the voter on the ground the fear of losing reservations if the BJP scores a brute majority. Beneficiaries who spoke to The Hindu said that the Opposition has only amped up the apprehension they had over the last five years because of increasing privatisation in jobs and education, and the lack of employment opportunities in the government sector. At a polling booth in the Sadabad area of Hathras constituency, Savitri Devi broke into tears narrating how she took a loan for her son to complete an MBA degree from a nearby deemed-to-be private university, but is now farming after failing to get a job. “We put everything into his education. What can come out of three-four bighas [of land],” she lamented.
Fourth, in areas where the Samajwadi Party is clearly in a direct fight with the BJP, Mayawati’s core vote bank is shifting towards the SP’s ‘cycle’ symbol, on its own accord. There is a perceptible softening of relations between the Yadavs and the Jatavs in the face of a common opposition in seats like Firozabad. At the Suhag Nagar crossing, residents of Bhim Nagar said that, for the first time, the SP has been allowed to put their counter on the Jatav side. Local resident Manish Kumar said, “The educated Jatav will shift some votes towards the SP to save the reservation.”
In other areas like Agra and Hathras, where the Bahujan Samaj Party usually secures the second spot, there was an expectation among Scheduled Caste voters that the SP would show respect to Behenji and step back, which did not happen.
Inflation, local issues
Fifth, rising inflation is a common concern. When asked about the purported threat to mangalsutra by Muslims, the common refrain was that many Hindu women do not have the money to have one made in the first place. Rising gold prices and the entry of big retail was flagged by small jewellers in Gajdundwara town of Etah, even though they said they would stick to the BJP.
Moreover, voters are no longer ready to keep mum on local issues or the absence of their local MP or MLA in the supposed interest of the country or of Hinduism. They praise the new highways, but also ask if they are made of gold and silver that they have to pay such high tolls every time they take the road. They also contrast them with the quality of connecting roads, poor water supply and storage facilities. Not to forget the stray cattle menace; at almost every rural stop, people had a tale of a rampaging bull or a cow to narrate.
Sixth, the sense of security provided by the general improvement in law and order in rural areas is working like social engineering for the BJP, particularly among non-Yadav OBCs and MBCs and non-Jatav Dalits. It is proving as potent — if not more — as the free ration scheme and is helping the ruling party. People still not have forgotten the days when criminals from influential caste groups would get a free hand from the local thana (police station). “Those who would steal electricity wires in daylight, ab choo nahin kar sakte (now they can not make even a sound),” said Gopal Lodhi, a young farmer in the Kasganj area of the Etah constituency.
BJP’s ‘clean’ image dented
Seventh, though the housing scheme is praised for providing pucca houses at the same place where the family lived for years, the image of the BJP is not as spic and span as it used to be in terms of local corruption. The charges of middlemen seeking a cut in getting the awas yojna (housing scheme) payment released are fairly common. Also, the local worker is feeling a sense of disappointment against the party allowing the “corrupt forces to nest under the saffron umbrella”.
A senior BJP legislator in central Uttar Pradesh said that the party suffered a dent in its anti-corruption image when it allowed a massive inflow of outsiders into the party at all levels. “Our top leadership is clean but they are like vegetarians who have given non-vegetarians space to create a separate kitchen for themselves in the house. The problem is, while the vegetarians are keeping their kitchen clean, they are not looking into what’s cooking in the non-vegetarian section of the house,” he said.
Eight, unlike in 2019, people are not in a mood to give a clean chit to the top BJP leadership; they are even willing to criticise the PM himself, but without identifying themselves. There are clear doubts about the integrity of the mainstream media and an apprehension that the election could be a charade comes through during conversations. A young student in Firozabad asked, “Who knows, the polling process is like the exams that we filled forms for, paid the fee, only to find that someone has leaked the paper.”
