The Hindu CSDS-Lokniti Post-Poll Survey

Post-poll survey: Naga solidarity gets a boost

The election underlined basically two important facts in the case of Manipur: failure of the plainsmen to translate their opposition to the Citizenship Amendment Bill into the defeat of the BJP and a moral boost for Naga solidarity.

The survey shows that over one in every four respondents said he or she had taken part in a protest or demonstration against the Bill. Moreover, nearly 75% were found to be aware of the issue and among them, four-fifths said they fully oppose the Bill. However, when it came to expressing their disapproval through the ballot, the people did not rally together and put up a combined opposition to the BJP.

Table 1: Despite strong opposition to CAB, many voted for the BJP candidates


Rajkumar Ranjan Singh, BJP candidate from Manipur Inner, won the seat by a margin of 17,755 votes over Congress candidate Oinam Nabakishore Singh.

In the Manipur Outer constituency, it was the NPF which was victorious and the BJP the runner-up. The success of the NPF gave a big moral boost to the solidarity of the Nagas. It underlines the Naga tribes transcending their individual tribe identities in favour of the larger Naga identity. However, data suggest the Kuki-Chin-Mizo group of tribes (the Thadous particularly) and the Meiteis/plainsmen who came within the constituency voted mainly either for the BJP or the Congress. The NPF seems to have swept the Tangkhul vote.

Table 2: Over half the respondents were dissatisfied with the Central government with complete dissatisfaction five times greater than complete satisfaction


Thus, in the Inner constituency, the contest was between the two all-India parties, whereas in the Outer constituency, the contest was between one all-India party and one State-based local party.

National issues and the Modi factor do not seem to have mattered — only 17% wanted Narendra Modi back as Prime Minister whereas preference for Rahul Gandhi was nearly double at 33%. Only two-fifths of the respondents said they were satisfied with the performance of the Modi government with over half being dissatisfied.

(Senjam Mangi Singh is a Professor at the Department of Political Science, Manipur University)

Related Topics
This article is closed for comments.
Please Email the Editor

Printable version | May 7, 2021 9:20:59 PM |

In This Package
Post-poll survey: explaining the Modi sweep across regions
Post-poll survey: The method behind the sampling
Post-poll survey: farmers’ issues were not centre stage
Post-poll survey: one saffron, four outlier states
Post-poll survey: the BJP’s ‘Act East’ moment
Post-poll survey: when the Left moved right in West Bengal
Post-poll survey: Naveen’s track record helps to overcome BJP blitz in Odisha
Post-poll survey: BJP’s polarisation strategy hits the mark in Assam
Post-poll survey: Puzzle of preference and electoral outcome in Nagaland
Post-poll survey: Citizenship Bill had its resonance in Meghalaya
You are reading
Post-poll survey: Naga solidarity gets a boost
Post-poll survey: when schemes translate into votes
Post-poll survey: anti-incumbency against State govt. and Centre in Tamil Nadu
Post-poll survey: dalits and farmers solidly behind YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh
Post-poll survey: BJP attracts traditional Congress, TRS votes in Telangana
Upper castes and minority support spur UDF to massive victory
Post-poll survey: Karnataka heading towards political uncertainty
Post-poll survey: incredible repeat of 25-0 score for BJP in Rajasthan
Post-poll survey: different strokes for State and Centre in Chhattisgarh
Post-poll survey: Modi wave defied caste, class and anti-incumbency in Jharkhand
Post-poll survey: Kamal Nath government falls in popularity charts in Madhya Pradesh
Post-poll survey: Why Uttar Pradesh's mahagathbandhan failed
Post-poll survey: No Balakot effect on the 2019 Lok Sabha Election in Uttarakhand
Post-poll survey: reposing trust in the NDA and the Prime Minister in Bihar
Next Story