As Kerala heads for the April 23 Lok Sabha elections, it is evident that two key issues would dominate electioneering in the State.
In the Central Travancore belt in southern Kerala, the entry of women of menstruating age into the Sabarimala shrine and the agitations against the State Government’s attempts to implement the Supreme Court verdict is expected to dominate the campaign rhetoric. Though to a lesser degree, the issue of the big flood that affected the area and post-flood development is also expected to figure prominently. In north Kerala, however, the cult of political violence and murders would dominate the debate given that the impact of the Sabarimala issue would, largely, be marginal.
Central Travancore is set to be the epicentre of the electoral battle as all the three coalitions — the Left Democratic Front (LDF), the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — have concentrated their energies in this region’s seats, which were traditionally reckoned as the core electoral base of the UDF. The constituencies in this belt have a unique brand of politics, enmeshed as it is in caste and religious denominational propensities. The UDF has traditionally derived its strength from the Nair-Christian combination, which included steadfast support of the smaller denominations.
The Sabarimala issue was perhaps one of the most emotive issues that rocked the Hindu community in the State in recent years. The agitation against the Supreme Court verdict, which began on an apolitical and peaceful note, acquired a political dimension when the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) seeing a big opportunity for a breakthrough in Kerala’s bipolar politics tried to steer it on a violent course. The LDF government, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, sought to counter the BJP by maintaining that it was constitutionally bound to implement the apex court’s verdict. It took strong police action against the violent agitation, sponsored by the Sangh Parivar outfits.
The UDF took the stand that the women’s entry issue was all about faith and the preservation of religious traditions and customs, something which it argued was applicable to all religions. The role of the Nair Service Society (NSS), which while opposed to the Sabarimala court verdict did not endorse the BJP’s violent tack, was also significant.
For its part, the LDF Government promoted a new renaissance platform in an attempt to rekindle the memories of the social reformation movement and tap into the angst of the relatively less affluent and struggling castes including the Dalits to counter the BJP’s efforts at Hindu consolidation. Mr. Vijayan also promoted the ‘human wall’ by women in a big way to lend a ‘progressive’ facet to the government’s actions related to Sabarimala.
And the choice of the three combines’ candidates has been based on a calculus reflective of their agendas. The BJP, which has bet big on Pathanamthitta in the hope of capitalising on the Sabarimala issue, has fielded State general secretary K. Surendran, who was at the forefront of the agitation.
The CPI(M) has opted to experiment by fielding a Muslim candidate, A.M. Ariff, from a south Kerala constituency for the first time. Mr. Ariff, an MLA, will contest Alappuzha. The LDF is also making attempts to shake the UDF’s base by reaching out to various Christian denominations such as the Malankara Orthodox community. It is trying to repeat the success it got in the 2016 Assembly elections by fielding the same candidate, Veena George for Pathanamthitta, where the Orthodox community has sizeable votes. Ms. George had won the Aranmula Assembly seat for the LDF, as an independent candidate, in 2016.
The UDF has stuck to its usual combination, fielding a Muslim candidate from one of the south Kerala constituencies, besides giving representation to all other sections. It also hopes to rework the old Nair-Christian equation on the strength of the support of the NSS, which has a rather uncomfortable relationship with the LDF and is opposed to the BJP. Each alliance claims that it can make headway in Central Travancore, but none of them are too sure how the undercurrents would work.
In north Kerala, political violence occupies centre stage — in a region where equations are largely based on rock-hard political preferences shaped by ideological loyalties. The brutal murders of Youth Congress workers Kripesh and Sarath Lal in Kasaragod last month have catapulted the vengeance-driven culture of violent political rivalry to the forefront of the campaign here.
The CPI(M)’s decision to field P Jayarajan, a leader who has been identified with the cult of political violence, will certainly create undercurrents during the elections. The presence of Mr. Jayarajan, who is facing charges in cases related to the murder of Abdul Shukkoor, a Muslim Students Federation activist, and K. Manoj, an RSS worker, has ensured that political violence will not be just a subtext to the larger issues in the Vadakara constituency, where the murder of Revolutionary Marxist Party leader T.P. Chandrashekharan is still fresh in people’s minds.
The implication of the Congress’s decision to field Rajmohan Unnithan, K. Sudhakaran and K. Muraleedharan in Kasaragod, Kannur and Vadakara Lok Sabha constituencies respectively has not gone unnoticed. Vociferous leaders as they are, they have already set the stage for highlighting political violence as a major issue on the campaign front.
“Of course, political violence is a deciding factor in the election campaign in northern Kerala and the electoral outcomes will depend on how effectively the CPI(M) defends the allegations of party workers’ involvement in the murders of political rivals,” said K. Balachandran, a former Programme Head of All India Radio, Kannur. Voters were confused as all the political groups were equally responsible for political violence, he added.
The UDF would look to highlight the murders of Shukkoor and Youth Congress worker S.P. Shuhaib in an attempt to pick holes in the CPI(M)’s claim that the LDF is in the forefront of the fight to protect the minorities.
